Hiver 2026: Quebec Faces Severe Winter Storms
- The shovel hasn't been idle since the start of the season in Quebec and that won't change before the end of winter.
- A snowier than normal first half of winter for several sectors, including Montreal;
- A regime change expected with potentially more powerful systems;
Published January 16, 2026 at 11:57 PM
The shovel hasn’t been idle since the start of the season in Quebec and that won’t change before the end of winter. However, the systems to come coudl be much more powerful. Forecast.
in brief:
Table of Contents
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A snowier than normal first half of winter for several sectors, including Montreal;
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A regime change expected with potentially more powerful systems;
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Humidity and warmth in the south will fuel the systems.
Winter ahead
The mid-season assessment is unambiguous: winter 2025-2026 is active. Several sectors of Quebec have received more snow than normal for this date. Montreal has already received 121 cm, while the average is 92 cm. Sept-Îles is buried under 223 cm of snow (normal of 161 cm).
for the second half of the meteorological winter (until the end of February), the trend should remain near normal for Val-d’Or, Quebec and Gaspé. However, Montreal and the south of the province have a good chance of ending with a balance above average.
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Atmospheric Ridge and Gulf Moisture Transport - Current Understanding (as of January 17, 2024)
The original statement describes a meteorological situation involving an atmospheric ridge over the Southeastern United States and its impact on moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico. This analysis verifies and expands upon that claim as of January 17, 2024.
What is an Atmospheric Ridge?
An atmospheric ridge is an elongated area of relatively high atmospheric pressure; it frequently enough represents a region where air is descending, suppressing cloud formation and typically leading to stable weather conditions. Ridges are a essential feature of large-scale weather patterns and play a crucial role in steering weather systems. The position and strength of a ridge substantially influence temperature and precipitation patterns.
Such as, a strong ridge positioned over the Southeastern US during winter can lead to warmer-than-average temperatures and drier conditions in that region, while together directing storm systems around its periphery. National Weather Service – Amarillo, TX: What is a Ridge?
How Does the Gulf of Mexico Contribute to Moisture?
The Gulf of Mexico is a notable source of moisture for much of the eastern United States, notably during the warmer months. Its warm waters readily evaporate, leading to high humidity levels in the air above the Gulf.
this moisture is then transported northward by prevailing winds and weather systems. The amount of moisture available from the Gulf directly impacts the potential for precipitation, including heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms. In January 2024,Gulf sea surface temperatures are averaging between 72-80°F (NOAA – Sea Surface Temperature), providing a ample source of atmospheric moisture.
An example of this impact was seen during the historic rainfall events in Louisiana and Texas in August 2016, where abundant Gulf moisture fueled record-breaking precipitation. Lake Charles, LA NWS - August 2016 Flood Event
How Does a Ridge act as a “Pump” for Moisture?
The statement that the ridge acts as a “pump” is a simplified but useful analogy. High pressure systems create a circulation pattern; air descends within the high-pressure area and then spreads outward.
In the case of a ridge over the Southeastern US,the outward flow of air at the surface creates a “draw” that pulls air from surrounding areas,including the Gulf of Mexico,towards the region of high pressure. This process effectively transports moisture inland. The stronger the ridge, the more pronounced this pumping action becomes. The ridge doesn’t *create* the moisture, but it *directs* and *enhances* its transport.
According to the Storm Prediction Center outlooks for January 17, 2024, a persistent high-pressure system is influencing weather patterns across the Southeastern US, contributing to elevated moisture levels and potential for precipitation further north.
current Weather Situation (January 17, 2024)
As of January 17, 2024, a high-pressure system is indeed positioned over the Southeastern United States. This ridge is contributing to increased moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico, leading to elevated humidity and the potential for precipitation across portions of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states.
The National Weather Service is forecasting increased cloud cover and chances of rain across these regions over the next 24-48 hours, directly linked to this moisture influx. Specifically, the forecast discussion for the Ohio valley (ILN Forecast Discussion) highlights the influence of Gulf moisture being advected northward by southerly flow ahead of an approaching system.
- National Weather Service (NWS): https://www.weather.gov/ – Primary source for weather forecasts and warnings.
- Storm Prediction Center (SPC): https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ – Focuses on severe weather forecasting.
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Governance (NOAA): https://www.noaa.gov/ - Parent association of NWS and SPC.