How a Trump Policy Shift Could Disrupt Taiwan’s Decades-Long Stability

Taiwan fears Trump will speak off-script on its fate in Beijing Taiwanese officials are deeply concerned that even subtle shifts in rhetoric from U.S. President Donald Trump during his upcoming state visit to China could undermine decades of delicate cross-strait policy, potentially putting the island’s future on the negotiating table between Beijing and Washington. A senior Taiwanese diplomat warned that any verbal or policy concession by Trump in his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping could have far-reaching consequences for Taiwan’s security and international status. In an interview with Bloomberg News, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Francois Wu expressed alarm at the prospect of Taiwan becoming a topic of discussion between the two leaders. “What we are the most afraid is to put Taiwan on the menu of the talk between Xi Jinping and President Trump,” Wu said. “We worry, and we need to avoid that it happens.” The summit between Trump and Xi, scheduled for May 14–15 in Beijing, follows a period of heightened tension in U.S.-China relations, including recent disputes over trade, technology, and regional security. Wu acknowledged that while Taipei has been expanding its economic and strategic ties with the United States—particularly through the semiconductor industry and significant investments—no assurances have been given that the status quo will be preserved. “Nothing is 100 percent sure,” he noted, adding that Taiwan is working to leverage shared interests with Washington to prevent any policy shift. “The more we share a common national interest, the more I think we feel comfortable that we will not be put on the menu,” Wu said. “For now, we feel comfortable.” The U.S. Maintains a long-standing “one China” policy, which acknowledges Beijing as China’s sole government without formally recognizing Taiwan’s sovereignty. Washington has also maintained unofficial relations with Taipei, a balance that has kept the cross-strait status quo intact for decades. However, Beijing has repeatedly pressed for Washington to explicitly oppose Taiwanese independence, a stance that could alter the strategic ambiguity that has long served as a buffer against conflict. A White House official stated that Trump expects a positive visit and that the administration’s stance on Taiwan remains unchanged. Yet, uncertainty persists, as Trump’s advisers—some of whom are known for their hawkish stance on China—have historically influenced policy decisions. Sources familiar with the matter indicated that while Taipei-Washington relations remain strong, there is no clear reassurance about what will be discussed or agreed upon during the Beijing summit. For Taiwan, the U.S. Remains a critical security and strategic partner, built on shared values and a history of cooperation. Wu emphasized the need for Taipei to strengthen its connections with the international community, particularly with like-minded countries in Europe, to enhance resilience and deterrence. As the Trump-Xi meeting approaches, the focus is expected to be on trade and investment, including access to critical minerals and rare earths that China has restricted through export controls. While some progress has been made since an agreement reached in South Korea last year, trade levels have not fully recovered to pre-control levels. The potential for even minor rhetorical changes from Trump could send shockwaves through the delicate balance of cross-strait relations, raising fears in Taipei that decades of stability could be imperiled by a single misstep in Beijing.