How Netanyahu and Hezbollah Need Each Other to Survive

The upcoming Israeli elections scheduled for 27 October 2026 will not rescue Lebanon from ongoing conflict, but they offer a vital window to examine the symbiotic political relationship binding Benjamin Netanyahu and Hezbollah. Many Lebanese citizens hope for the defeat of Netanyahu—who has overseen the destruction of Lebanese villages, the killing and displacement of civilians, and ongoing military infringements on national sovereignty—the Hezbollah leadership and Netanyahu share a political utility where each adversary provides the other with the risk, legitimacy, and public audience needed to justify their actions.

Voters and Legal Qualifications in the Israeli Electorate

Participation in the upcoming parliamentary elections is open to all Israeli citizens who turn 18 by election day and are listed in the official voter registry managed by the Ministry of Interior, which closes 45 days before the vote. This right applies regardless of religious or national affiliation, meaning Arab citizens holding Israeli citizenship are fully eligible to vote for Jewish, Arab, or mixed party lists. In contrast, Palestinians residing in the West Bank and Gaza Strip who lack Israeli citizenship hold no right to vote in the Knesset elections.

Polling Margins and Coalition Shifts in Knesset Contests

A recent opinion poll conducted by the Hebrew-language newspaper Maariv shows the opposition bloc expanding its lead over Netanyahu’s governing coalition to six seats. The change comes as the party “Amach Yisrael,” led by Ofer Winter, failed to clear the 3.25 percent electoral threshold by securing only three percent of the vote. The change leaves the governing coalition with 50 seats compared to 56 seats for the opposition and 14 seats for Arab parties, while voter certainty on election day continues to climb toward 81 percent according to the Maariv survey data. In the opposition bloc, Naftali Bennett’s “Yachad” party gained two additional seats to reach 15 seats, while Gadi Eisenkot’s “Yashar!” party remained unchanged at 21 seats and Israel Beiteinu stayed at 8 seats. Overall, the allied party bloc declined by three seats compared to the previous week’s poll, and the “Economic Reservists” narrowly cleared the electoral threshold to secure 4 seats. Furthermore, 60 percent of Israelis favor forming a unity government if the Knesset election results remain undecided, with 33 percent preferring it to be led by the change bloc leader and 19 percent preferring Netanyahu.

Contending Leadership Figures and Divergent Political Platforms

The Knesset election features a fierce race among four primary leaders seeking to head the next government: Benjamin Netanyahu, Gadi Eisenkot, Yair Lapid, and Naftali Bennett. While Eisenkot, Lapid, and Bennett agree on unseating Netanyahu, they diverge significantly on core policy issues including the formation of an immediate official state commission of inquiry into the events of October 7, 2023, which Netanyahu seeks to postpone until the end of the war. The candidates hold sharp differences regarding military exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Haredi Jews, plans for the Gaza Strip, and confrontation strategies against Iran and Hezbollah. In the polling matchups, Gadi Eisenkot leads Benjamin Netanyahu with 49 percent to 41 percent, while Naftali Bennett leads Netanyahu with 45 percent to 43 percent.

The Mutual Political Dependency Between Adversaries

Despite heavy military losses inflicted on Hezbollah, every Israeli strike ironically repairs elements of the group’s domestic narrative. As domestic and international pressure mounts for Hezbollah to surrender its weapons to the Lebanese state, the group deploys ongoing Israeli attacks and territorial occupation as its primary justification for retaining its arsenal. Netanyahu derives a corresponding benefit, using Hezbollah’s armed presence to reinforce Israel’s image as a nation facing existential threats, thereby justifying recurring military operations, delaying political settlements, and framing insecurity as a reason to keep his government in power. These ongoing dynamics raise an even sharper question for observers: What if Netanyahu is not merely one of Hezbollah’s bitterest and most destructive enemies, but also the adversary the group is best able to weaponize to prove that its continued existence remains necessary now that it can no longer convincingly promise to defeat Israel?

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