How to Counter Iran’s Influence Over the Strait of Hormuz

The United States and Iran are scheduled to sign a memorandum of understanding (MOU) in Geneva on Friday, June 20, 2026, to permanently terminate military operations across all fronts, including in Lebanon. According to senior U.S. officials cited by CNBC, the agreement includes a phased removal of the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports and a temporary 60-day window of toll-free commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Strait of Hormuz Maritime Administration

Under the terms of the MOU, Iran will permit commercial ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz without tolls for a period of 60 days. Following this window, Tehran will enter discussions with Oman and other Persian Gulf states to determine the future administration and maritime services of the waterway, according to senior U.S. officials who read the document to reporters on a conference call.

The MOU specifies that these administrative discussions must align with international law and the sovereign rights of the coastal states bordering the strait. A senior U.S. official told CNBC that while Iran is expected to assert its rights aggressively during these negotiations, other Gulf states are unlikely to accept any arrangement that restricts toll-free access.

President Donald Trump has previously stated that the strait must remain un-tolled after the conflict ends. CNBC reports that no tolls were imposed by Iran or any other entity prior to the start of the war.

Naval Blockade and Military Ceasefire

The agreement mandates the immediate start of the U.S. naval blockade removal upon the signing of the MOU. The U.S. will completely end the blockade within 30 days. During this transition, the Islamic Republic of Iran will restore vessel traffic in proportion to pre-war levels, according to the text of the MOU read by a U.S. official.

The MOU establishes a permanent termination of military operations on all fronts. Both the United States and Iran undertake to refrain from the threat or use of force, respect each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, and avoid interfering in internal affairs. The document also explicitly ensures the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon.

The parties have committed to negotiating a final deal within a maximum of 60 days, a period that can be extended if both sides consent.

Commercial Shipping and Security Status

Shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz remain significantly lower than pre-war levels. Kpler data shared by CNBC shows that 13 commercial ships, including six tankers, transited the strait on Tuesday, June 16, 2026. Before the conflict began, more than 100 vessels typically sailed through the strait daily.

The Joint Maritime Information Center, a U.S.-led maritime security organization based in Bahrain, downgraded the threat level for ships crossing the strait from severe to substantial on Tuesday. The center noted that while the behavior of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has become less volatile, shippers still face a strong possibility of attack.

The current volatility follows a period of escalation that began on Feb. 28, when the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran. According to CNBC, ships had transited the strait freely without fees or conditions before that date, but Tehran has attempted to impose control over the waterway since the outbreak of the war.

The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war, by signing the MOU, declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon.

Memorandum of Understanding as read by a U.S. official to CNBC