Ibovespa Hits Record 195,000 Points Driven by Petrobras as Dollar Falls

The Ibovespa reached a historic milestone on April 9, 2026, surpassing 194,000 points for the first time in its history. By approximately 10:45 a.m. Local time, the index was trading up 1.18%, reaching a new intraday record of 194,468 points.

The rally on April 9, 2026, was primarily driven by a spike in oil prices and a strong performance by Petrobras. This surge reflects a volatile geopolitical climate in the Middle East, specifically following new Israeli attacks against Lebanon.

Geopolitical Volatility and Energy Markets

Tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil flow, have significantly impacted market valuations. Reports indicate that Iran has been asserting control over the strait and demanding tolls for safe passage.

These developments have kept oil prices approximately 40% above the levels recorded before the conflict began. While the energy sector has soared, the broader industrial sector has faced pressure. Concerns over the fragility of a ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran have weighed on Vale and other companies tied to the domestic economy.

Market Rotation and the April 8 Rally

The record-breaking movement on April 9, 2026, followed another significant rally on April 8, 2026, when the index hit an all-time high of 192,201, gaining 2.09%. That session saw an intraday peak of 193,759 points.

The April 8 rally was triggered by a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, mediated by Pakistan. This event sparked a global risk-on rally and a massive rotation within the Brazilian market. While energy stocks declined during this specific window, banking institutions saw substantial gains:

• Bradesco rose 5%
• Banco do Brasil gained 4.48%
• Itaú rose 3.50%
• Santander added 2.11%

During the April 8 session, Petrobras shares fell more than 4% as Brent crude crashed approximately 13% to near $96. Trading volume for the Ibovespa reached R$ 42.5 billion on April 8, exceeding the daily average of R$ 35 billion.

Currency and Macroeconomic Indicators

The geopolitical shifts have also impacted the exchange rate. On April 8, 2026, the U.S. Dollar fell 1.00% to R$ 5.103, marking its lowest close since May 2024. This decline was attributed to a global dollar selloff as the ceasefire reduced inflation expectations and opened the possibility for worldwide rate cuts.

Brazil’s domestic economic conditions have further influenced these trends. The Selic rate stands at 14.75%, and foreign inflows into the country have exceeded R$ 53 billion year-to-date. The combination of these inflows and the falling war premium has intensified carry trade activity.

Iran’s Foreign Minister confirmed that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened during the ceasefire period in coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces.