India Falls to Sixth in Global GDP Rankings as Japan and UK Overtake It, IMF Reports

According to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, India has slipped to sixth place in the world GDP rankings, with Japan and the United Kingdom overtaking it, despite continued strong economic growth.

In April 2025, the IMF had projected India’s economy to reach $4,187.017 billion by the end of FY 2025-26, which would have overtaken Japan’s estimated $4,186.431 billion and positioned India as the world’s fourth largest economy. However, the April 2026 revision shows India’s nominal GDP at $3,916 billion for the same period, while the UK’s GDP rose to $4,003 billion and Japan’s reached $4,435 billion.

The decline in India’s ranking is attributed to a combination of rupee depreciation and a base revision in GDP calculations, which lowered the nominal dollar value of India’s output even as the economy continued to expand in real terms.

The IMF report clarifies that this shift is purely nominal. In terms of real GDP growth, India remains the fastest-growing major economy, with a projected growth rate of 6.5% for 2026, significantly higher than the UK’s projected 0.8% growth for the same year.

Government projections estimate India’s GDP growth at 7.6% for 2025-26, while the World Bank raised its outlook for India’s fiscal year growth to 6.6% from 6.3%, citing robust domestic demand and export performance. The Asian Development Bank revised its estimate to 6.9% from 6.5%, and the Reserve Bank of India projected 6.9% growth for the fiscal year.

Despite the current nominal ranking, the IMF’s medium-term projections indicate that India is expected to regain the fourth position by 2027 and is on track to become the third largest economy by 2031, driven by sustained strong growth.

Global growth is forecast at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, slower than the 3.4% recorded in 2025, with the moderation reflecting disruptions from the West Asia conflict, partly offset by strong data and lower tariff rates, according to the IMF.