Injury Pain Prediction: 3-Day Risk Assessment
Whiplash, Anxiety linked to Chronic Pain Development
Updated June 9, 2025
A new Northwestern Medicine study indicates that scientists can predict which whiplash patients will develop chronic pain by observing brain activity and anxiety levels within days of the injury. The research, focused on understanding the development of chronic pain, reveals a connection between the brain’s memory center (hippocampus) and long-term memory storage (cortex).
The study, which will be published in Nature Mental Health on Oct. 24,found that increased communication between these brain regions,combined with high anxiety immediately following a car accident,strongly predicted chronic pain one year later. This suggests the brain adapts rapidly after injury, creating a risk for long-term pain.
Paulo Branco, assistant professor of anesthesiology and pain medicine at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine and lead author of the study, said the communication between the hippocampus and cortex appears to be related to forming new memories of the accident and pain. “The hippocampus is responsible for consolidating new memories into long-lasting ones,” Branco said.
Researchers hypothesize that heightened connectivity encodes a strong memory associating head and neck movement with pain. “This creates expectations and associations,” Branco said. “If the memory has high emotional importance, then it makes these patients associate this movement with pain.”
Apkar V. Apkarian, director of the Center for Translational Pain Research and professor of neuroscience at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, emphasized the importance of early intervention. “Now that we certainly know there is this critical time period when this happens,we can focus our treatment efforts at this early stage to prevent chronic pain rather than try to cure it,which is much more difficult,” Apkarian said.
Apkarian suggested that targeting anxiety immediately after injury,possibly with medication,could halt these brain changes.Future treatments might also target hippocampal activity through pharmacology or neuromodulation.
The study involved a collaboration between the Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, Northwestern University, and McGill University. Researchers collected brain imaging data from over 200 whiplash patients between March 2016 and December 2021, using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) within three days of the injury. Patients where followed for 12 months to assess pain levels and track the development of chronic pain.
What’s next
Researchers plan to investigate the underlying mechanisms of the hippocampal response to injury, assessing physiological and psychological factors that drive these brain mechanisms. They also aim to determine if these findings apply to other chronic pain conditions. The long-term goal is to target maladaptive responses early after injury to test their role in the development of chronic pain, perhaps using pharmacological treatments, cognitive-behavioral therapy, or transcranial magnetic stimulation.
