Iran Conflict Looms Over Trump-Xi Jinping Summit and Trade Talks

U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to travel to Beijing for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping on May 14 and 15, 2026. The meetings are expected to be dominated by the ongoing war in Iran, a development that may limit the opportunity for the two leaders to resolve disputes regarding tariffs and the supply of rare earth minerals.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has confirmed that Iran will be a central topic during the summit. The focus on the conflict comes as China seeks to position itself as a mediator, having hosted Iran’s foreign minister earlier in May for the first time since the conflict began in late February.

The diplomatic engagement between Beijing and Tehran has raised expectations for a potential peace deal, which contributed to a decrease in oil prices and gains in the stock market earlier in the week.

Status of the Iran Conflict

The war involving Iran began in late February 2026. While a ceasefire between the United States and Iran has been in place since April 8, a formal peace deal has not yet been reached.

Despite the ceasefire, tensions remain high, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz. Recent reports indicate that the U.S. And Iran have traded fire in the region, and Iran has claimed to attack U.S. Navy ships following the targeting of an Iranian tanker.

The volatility in the Strait of Hormuz has led Gulf states to urge the United Nations to take action to ensure the safety of the waterway, as seafarers remain trapped in the area amid the escalating clashes.

Impact on Trade and Business

The geopolitical weight of the Iran war is expected to sideline other critical economic discussions. Specifically, progress on tariffs and rare earth supplies may be delayed as the summit prioritizes regional stability in the Middle East.

The U.S. Business delegation accompanying President Trump is expected to be smaller than the delegations brought to China by other national leaders recently. The White House has not yet formally invited a full roster of executives, and a proposed list of two dozen leaders may be reduced by half.

According to sources, the U.S. Government declined an invitation from China to organize industry-specific meetings between senior Chinese leaders and U.S. CEOs. This decision was based on concerns that such arrangements could make American businesses appear too closely aligned with Beijing.

Despite the smaller delegation, the CEOs of Boeing and Citigroup are set to accompany the president. Boeing is expected to use the summit to secure its first large order from China in nearly a decade.

Diplomatic Outlook

China has indicated its commitment to the meeting between President Xi and President Trump regardless of the evolving situation in the Middle East. This steadfastness suggests that Beijing views the summit as a necessary venue to address the “geopolitical overhang” created by the Iran war.

The timing of the subsequent meeting, which will involve President Xi visiting the United States, is considered a key factor in the broader trajectory of U.S.-China relations and the effort to stabilize international markets affected by the conflict.