Iran Gains Won’t Equal Regional Peace
IsraelS Shifting Regional Role: From savior to Destabilizer?
Recent actions by Israel, especially in Syria, are increasingly casting the nation not as a regional savior, but as a destabilizing force. This perception is gaining traction, even among allies, as Israel’s assertive military posture appears to be undermining broader diplomatic efforts.
In Syria, a prevailing sentiment suggests Israel is actively fostering divisions and hindering the new government’s attempts at national unification. This was starkly illustrated in mid-July when, following a surge in sectarian violence in southern Syria, Israel launched airstrikes on Syrian government facilities in Damascus.While Israeli officials cited the protection of the Druze minority and the demilitarization of the border region as thier motivations,syrian leader Ahmed al-Shara condemned the intervention as a deliberate plot to divide and destabilize the country. Thomas Barrack, the U.S. special envoy to Syria and ambassador to Turkey, echoed these concerns, labeling the strikes as “poorly timed” and detrimental to regional stabilization efforts.
These strikes highlight a potential miscalculation by Israeli leadership, not only regarding its Arab neighbors but also concerning the Trump administration’s strategic objectives. The U.S. administration has been actively pursuing an Israeli-Syrian peace deal as the fall of Bashar al-Assad in 2024. The new Syrian leadership, eager for economic relief and reconstruction, has shown a keen interest in new security agreements. The Trump administration has reciprocated by backing the lifting of sanctions on Syria and demonstrating political support through a high-profile meeting between President Trump and al-Shara in Riyadh. The administration’s investment in Syria’s stability hinges on a successful Israeli-Syrian accord, ideally culminating in Syria’s accession to the Abraham Accords. Though, Israel’s aggressive military actions within Syria are perceived as complicating these diplomatic endeavors, with some analysts arguing that this posture is creating unnecessary adversaries when Syria currently poses little threat to Israel.
While Israeli leaders may believe their neighbors respect its newfound strength, they appear to be consistently misjudging reactions when this strength lacks a clear political purpose and disregards regional interests. Arab leaders, already grappling with significant domestic challenges, face considerable difficulty in forging extensive normalization deals with Israel amidst widespread public hostility towards the nation. by continuing its current approach towards the Palestinians, Prime minister Netanyahu risks perpetuating a protracted conflict in Gaza, fueling unrest in the West Bank, engaging in perpetual “mowing the lawn” operations in Iran, and achieving no tangible progress in normalization with Arab neighbors. This course of action also risks severely damaging Israel’s international image.Option pathways exist. Israeli leaders could seriously consider Arab proposals aimed at providing humanitarian relief and stabilizing Gaza without Hamas, and without displacing its population. These initiatives, however, have been rejected by both the Israeli government and the Trump administration.
Israel has a history of making different choices. Past Israeli prime ministers recognized the Palestinian conflict as the most significant existential threat to the nation. Netanyahu, conversely, has pursued a strategy of marginalizing Palestinians and undermining their national aspirations, seemingly believing this can be achieved without jeopardizing Israel’s regional acceptance or its own security.
Shimon Peres’ vision of a “new Middle East” built on economic cooperation and regional integration, grounded in peace with the Palestinians, was onc met with skepticism. Today, the notion of a peaceful Middle East predicated on Israeli military dominance, devoid of any political horizon for palestinians, appears equally fantastical. More alarmingly, this approach is far more perilous, threatening to return Israel to its starting point.