Washington D.C. – Despite heightened tensions and a recent escalation of military posturing, a path toward a renewed nuclear agreement between the United States and Iran remains achievable, according to former negotiators from both countries. The possibility hinges on Iran offering verifiable guarantees to suspend its nuclear program, a move that could offer both nations a face-saving “victory,” experts say.
Rob Malley, a former U.S. Official who played a key role in negotiating the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), suggested a “short-term, fragile arrangement” is within reach. He explained that such an agreement could provide both sides with a political win. Under the original JCPOA, Iran agreed to limit its uranium enrichment and the number of centrifuges it operated, without completely dismantling its nuclear infrastructure.
The current geopolitical landscape, however, presents a different set of circumstances. Following reported strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities last year, coupled with decades of economic sanctions and the weakening of its regional allies, Iran finds itself in a comparatively vulnerable position. This, some analysts believe, provides President Trump with leverage to demand more stringent commitments from Tehran – specifically, an indefinite suspension of uranium enrichment, or the threat of further military action.
“Iran could make the case that its suspension was born of necessity, given the June (2025) strikes and the unsafe state of its nuclear program,” Malley told CNN. “They could claim that they need time before being able to resume enrichment.”
Malley continued, “For its part, the US would maintain that it has preserved its position that Iran should never enrich on its soil. … Both sides could describe it as a victory of sorts: Iran, by pointing to the fact that it has not relinquished the right to enrich, and the US by boasting that President Trump had achieved what neither Obama nor Biden could, which is a halt to Iranian enrichment.”
Seyed Hossein Mousavian, a former Iranian diplomat who served as a spokesperson for Iran during nuclear negotiations with the European Union from 2003 to 2005, echoed the sentiment that conditions are now “very different” but potentially “more favorable” for a deal. He emphasized the importance of Iran providing “firm guarantees that it will permanently remain as a non-nuclear weapon state.”
“Iran’s current negotiations are centered on survival and the preservation of its territorial integrity and national sovereignty,” Mousavian said. “Iran will under no circumstances bargain away its defensive deterrence capabilities.”
The path forward, however, is not without its complexities. Malley cautioned that whether President Trump is willing to settle for a deal focused solely on the nuclear program, or whether he will insist on addressing Iran’s ballistic missile program, its support for regional proxies, or even its domestic policies, remains a significant unknown.
Negotiations between the U.S. And Iran resumed on February 6, 2026, following an initial round of talks that began in April 2025. Those initial talks were led by U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and were described by both sides as “constructive.” A second round of talks took place in Rome in April 2025. The current round, taking place in Geneva, comes amid rising tensions and follows a period of indirect discussions mediated by Oman.
U.S. Officials have repeatedly stated that any agreement must address not only Iran’s nuclear program but also its ballistic missile development and its support for proxy groups throughout the Middle East. Iran, however, appears focused on securing sanctions relief and preserving its defensive capabilities.
