Iran Nuclear Program: Air Strikes Won’t Work
airstrikes alone are unlikely to cripple Iran’s hardened and decentralized nuclear program. Experts confirm that despite advanced weaponry, deep, buried facilities, and a distributed research network render air attacks ineffective. Destroying a building isn’t the same as removing nuclear breakout capability. Iran’s program is designed to withstand physical strikes via strategic, legal, and even doctrinal means. the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) isn’t the full story. Understanding the multi-faceted nature of this situation is paramount, as is realizing confirmed removal of capacity is what’s truly needed. News Directory 3 provides valuable insights into this evolving situation. Discover what strategic approaches might offer a viable path forward.
Airstrikes Unlikely to Dismantle Iran Nuclear Program
Updated June 18, 2025
Even with advanced intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, precision-guided munitions, and bunker-busting weapons, airstrikes are unlikely to permanently dismantle Iran’s hardened and decentralized nuclear program, experts say. This holds true even if the U.S. were to commit its full arsenal.
Iran’s nuclear system is designed to withstand physical strikes strategically,legally,and doctrinally. Fordow, Iran’s most fortified enrichment site, is buried 80 to 90 meters deep inside mountains. while the U.S. GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator can pierce up to 60 meters of reinforced concrete under ideal conditions, it is indeed not designed to penetrate layers of deep mountain rock.
Even if a bomb penetrates, confirming the destruction of IR-6 centrifuge arrays or determining the fate of enriched uranium is impossible. destroying a building does not equate to eliminating the capacity for a nuclear breakout.
Natanz, another well-known site, presents diffrent challenges. Its facilities are more exposed but have demonstrated resilience. The 2009-2010 Stuxnet attack disrupted rotor speeds, and in 2021, a power grid attack shut down cascades. These efforts avoided explosive sabotage to prevent aerosolizing stored uranium. Strikes on cascade halls or storage vaults could trigger that outcome. Iran has been constructing new,deeper cascade chambers at Natanz,modeled after Fordow’s hardened design.
Since at least 2003, Iran has transformed its nuclear program into a compartmentalized, redundant network. The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) oversees public-facing sites,while critical research and progress,procurement,and materials engineering are embedded across the Ministry of Defense,the military-linked SPND,and IRGC-run logistics and engineering firms.
Universities support advanced work on centrifuge rotors, uranium metallurgy, and simulation models. The fuel cycle is spread across multiple cities: conversion at Isfahan, enrichment at Fordow and Natanz, and heavy water production at Arak. Knocking out one node does not cripple the entire system.
“Destroying a building is not the same as eliminating the capacity for breakout.”
What’s next
Airstrikes may buy time, but they risk destroying inspection leverage and pushing the program further underground.Verified removal of capacity, control of personnel, and physical access to infrastructure are essential for real disarmament.