Oman – Iran and the United States are set to engage in direct talks in Muscat, Oman, over Tehran’s nuclear program, a development occurring amidst heightened regional tensions and a looming threat of further escalation. The discussions come as mediators from Qatar, Türkiye, and Egypt attempt to forge a framework for a broader agreement, addressing not only nuclear concerns but also Iran’s ballistic missile program and its support for regional proxies.
The proposed framework, as outlined by sources familiar with the negotiations, centers on significant limitations to Iran’s uranium enrichment activities. According to these sources, Iran would commit to zero enrichment for a period of three years. Beyond that initial period, any enrichment would be capped below 1.5 percent. This proposal reflects Western concerns that Iran’s uranium enrichment capabilities could be used to develop nuclear weapons, a claim Iran consistently denies, maintaining its program is solely for peaceful purposes, including electricity generation.
Alongside the nuclear issue, the proposed framework also seeks to address Iran’s ballistic missile program and its support for allied groups across the Middle East. Restrictions on both are key demands from the United States and its regional allies, particularly Israel, which views Iran’s missile arsenal as a direct threat to its security. The talks will be led by U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
This diplomatic push arrives at a critical juncture. The region remains on edge following a 12-day war initiated by Israel against Iran last June, and a subsequent crackdown by Iranian authorities on widespread protests within the country. The United States has also increased its military presence in the Arabian Sea, with the USS Abraham Lincoln, a Nimitz-class nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, currently positioned in the region. This deployment, ordered by President Donald Trump following the crackdown on protesters, is widely interpreted as a signal of potential military action against Iran.
While the prospect of talks is seen as a positive step, significant obstacles remain. An Iranian source, speaking to Al Jazeera, indicated that Tehran is prepared to demonstrate flexibility on uranium enrichment, potentially including the transfer of 400 kg of highly enriched uranium (HEU) to a third country, or agreeing to a consortium arrangement for enrichment. However, the same source emphasized that Iran will not accept preconditions for the talks and will not agree to completely abandon its enrichment program.
A regional diplomat, also speaking on condition of anonymity, revealed that Iran is resisting any agreement that would require it to fundamentally dismantle its missile capabilities. This divergence on the missile issue represents a major sticking point, as the United States and its allies insist that any lasting agreement must include verifiable constraints on Iran’s ballistic missile program.
Recent satellite imagery, as reported by multiple sources, indicates that Iran is actively repairing damage sustained at key missile sites following strikes last year, believed to have been carried out by Israel and the United States. While repairs at nuclear facilities are reportedly progressing more slowly, the continued activity at missile sites underscores Iran’s determination to maintain its military capabilities.
The urgency of the situation is underscored by the limited window for diplomacy. With the United States signaling a willingness to consider military options, and Iran continuing to advance its nuclear and missile programs, the stakes are exceptionally high. The outcome of these talks in Oman could determine whether the region descends into further conflict or embarks on a path towards de-escalation and a more stable security environment.
The proposed framework also suggests a willingness to address Iran’s regional activities. Restrictions on the arming of Iran’s allies are included, a clear reference to concerns over Iranian support for groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthi rebels in Yemen, and various Shia militias in Iraq and Syria. The United States and its allies accuse Iran of using these proxies to destabilize the region and project its influence.
Despite the challenges, both sides appear to recognize the need for dialogue. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi stated that “diplomacy is ongoing,” signaling a willingness to engage with the United States. However, the success of these talks will depend on whether both sides can bridge their differences and find common ground on the core issues of nuclear enrichment, ballistic missiles, and regional security. The coming days will be crucial in determining whether a diplomatic solution can be reached, or whether the region is headed towards a dangerous escalation.
