Iran on High Alert: Will Tehran Unleash Retaliation Against Israel After Devastating Airstrike
Iran’s Dilemma After Israel’s Large-Scale Attack
Iran is facing a difficult decision after Israel’s recent large-scale air strike campaign against its territory.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched a large-scale air strike campaign against Iran in response to Tehran’s missile attack earlier this month. Targets included military bases, missile factories, and Iran’s air defense systems.
The IDF said that many types of military aircraft, including fighters, supply aircraft, and reconnaissance aircraft, participated in the airstrike campaign. According to some sources, Israel used more than 100 aircraft for three attacks on Iran this time.
Iran said it had stopped the Israeli raid and that the attack only caused “limited damage” to military targets across the country. Later, Iran confirmed that four of its soldiers were killed in the attack.
Iran is in the midst of a regional war. Since the Hamas-led attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, Israel has rapidly attacked Hamas forces in the Gaza Strip and other Tehran proxies, including Hezbollah, Houthi and their allies in Syria and Iraq.
These groups represent Iran’s line of defense on the front against Israel. However, they were seriously weakened by the Israeli military’s tough response. Israeli strikes also weaken Iran and make it more vulnerable.
Iranian officials have made it clear that they do not want a direct war with Israel. Iran wants to protect its ally, which is considered a “ring of fire” surrounding Israel.
After Israel conducted a large-scale air strike on October 26, Iran publicly downplayed the impact of the attack and still showed normal programs on television. Iran did not immediately announce that it would retaliate against Israel, but only reiterated its right to self-defense.
Iran also faces significant economic problems, making it wary of a long and costly war with Israel. Tehran has been heavily sanctioned by the US and Europe for its nuclear program, forcing it closer to Russia and China.
Iran is also facing serious internal conflicts with arguments over rising prices and tough management measures. The Iranian government claims to take down Israel, but also needs to maintain power in a complex country.
Analysts believe that is one reason Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wants to elect a more moderate president after former hardline President Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter accident.
Whatever Iran’s final calculations are, it still hopes to avoid a larger-scale war with Israel. However, this is also a difficult problem for Tehran.
Some sources said Israel warned Iran not to respond to the latest attack. Israel emphasized that if Tehran retaliates, Tel Aviv will launch another attack on a larger scale, especially if Israeli civilians are killed or injured.
Iran is also concerned about the reaction of the US and its allies if Tehran retaliates against Israel. Washington still maintains significant military forces in the Middle East, including many modern weapons.
The US and UK call on both Israel and Iran to stop responding to each other to end the cycle of escalating tensions. The Pentagon warned Iran not to ”make mistakes” if it tries to respond to Israeli attacks.
Iran vowed to take every opportunity to protect its security and vital interests, and called on the international community to take urgent collective action and stop Israel’s efforts to spark a war in the Middle East.
