Iran’s Supreme Leader Faces Biggest Crisis in Decades

Tehran – Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has weathered internal unrest and external pressure before, but as envoys scramble to avert potential strikes threatened by the United States, Iran’s Supreme Leader faces what may be the most perilous crisis of his 36-year rule.

Widespread discontent simmers amongst Iranians grappling with an economy crippled by sanctions. Authorities suppressed widespread protests in January, resulting in a reported loss of life in the thousands. Last year saw strikes targeting key nuclear and missile facilities attributed to both Israel and the United States. Iran’s regional posture is increasingly precarious, with long-standing allies and proxies weakened or toppled.

As the risk of wider conflict looms in the Middle East, Khamenei’s unwavering devotion to the Islamic Republic, his deep-seated hostility towards the West, and his decades-long record of negotiating tactics will determine the fate of the region.

Preserving the Islamic Republic at Any Cost

This year, Khamenei authorized a crackdown on protests, described as the bloodiest since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, stating that “troublemakers must be dealt with,” before security forces opened fire on demonstrators chanting “Death to the Dictator!”

Threats of renewed strikes from the U.S. Come just months after Khamenei was forced to seek shelter in June during raids that killed several close associates and commanders within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Those strikes were among the numerous indirect consequences of the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel – an attack that not only triggered the current war in Gaza but also prompted Israeli strikes against other Tehran-aligned groups in the region.

With Israeli strikes weakening Hezbollah in Lebanon and the reported fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Khamenei’s influence in the Middle East has waned. He now faces demands from the U.S. To relinquish what remains of Iran’s strategic leverage: its ballistic missile arsenal.

Iran has signaled a willingness to offer concessions on its nuclear program, which it maintains is for purely civilian purposes, but which the West and Israel view as a pathway to a nuclear weapon. However, Khamenei refuses even to discuss abandoning the missile program, which Iran considers its sole remaining deterrent against potential Israeli attack – a stance that could invite preemptive strikes from Washington.

As the U.S. Military buildup intensifies, Khamenei’s calculations will be shaped by a character forged through revolution, years of turmoil and war with Iraq, and decades of confrontation with the United States, and by the concentration of all powers in his hands.

Speaking to reporters at the White House today, February 20, 2026, President Trump stated, “I think it’s fair to say I’m looking at that,” when asked if he was considering a limited strike to pressure Iran into a nuclear agreement.

Khamenei has governed the country since 1989, wielding absolute authority over all branches of government, the military, and the judiciary. While elected officials manage day-to-day affairs, Khamenei has the final say on any major policy, particularly concerning the United States. His firm grip on Iran’s complex clerical rule, coupled with limited democracy, ensures no other entity can challenge his decisions.

The Position of Supreme Leader

Early in his tenure, Khamenei was often viewed as a weak and unqualified successor to the immensely popular and charismatic founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

Having not yet attained the title of “Ayatollah” upon his appointment as Supreme Leader, Khamenei initially struggled to exert authority through religious legitimacy as expected within the clerical rule system.

After a prolonged struggle to emerge from the shadow of his mentor, he ultimately asserted himself by establishing a powerful security apparatus loyal solely to him.

Khamenei harbors deep distrust of the West, particularly the United States, which he accuses of seeking his overthrow.

In a characteristically harsh address following the January protests, he blamed the unrest on President Trump, stating, “We consider the American president a criminal for the human losses, damage, and slander he has inflicted on the Iranian nation.”

Despite his ideological rigidity, Khamenei has previously demonstrated a willingness to compromise when the survival of the Islamic Republic is at stake.

The concept of “heroic flexibility,” first articulated by Khamenei in 2013, allows for tactical concessions to achieve broader objectives, mirroring Khomeini’s 1988 acceptance of a ceasefire after nearly eight years of war with Iraq.

Khamenei’s cautious endorsement of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal with six world powers represented another such moment, as he saw the easing of sanctions as necessary for economic stability and consolidating his power.

Trump withdrew from the agreement during his first term in 2018, reimposing stringent sanctions on Iran, which responded by gradually violating the agreed-upon restrictions on its nuclear program.

A Key to Power

Khamenei has repeatedly relied on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basij, a paramilitary force comprising hundreds of thousands of volunteers, during times of increasing pressure to suppress opposition.

The Guard and the Basij suppressed protests following the disputed 2009 presidential election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

In 2022, Khamenei’s decisions were similarly harsh in the arrest, imprisonment, and execution of protesters angered by the death of Mahsa Amini, a Kurdish woman, while in custody.

The Guard and the Basij also crushed the latest round of protests in January.

A significant portion of his power also stems from the vast, quasi-governmental financial institution known as (Setad), which operates under Khamenei’s direct control. This empire, valued in the tens of billions of dollars, has grown exponentially during his rule, investing billions in the Revolutionary Guard.

Outside observers portray Khamenei as dogmatic, secretive, and fearful of betrayal – anxieties exacerbated by a 1981 assassination attempt in which a bomb hidden in a tape recorder injured his right arm.

In his official autobiography, Khamenei recounts being severely tortured in 1963, at the age of 24, during his first of many imprisonments for political activity under the Shah’s rule.

Following the Islamic Revolution, and as then-Deputy Defense Minister, Khamenei became close to the Revolutionary Guard during the 1980-1988 war with Iraq, which claimed approximately one million lives on both sides.

He won the presidency with Khomeini’s backing, but his succession upon the Supreme Leader’s death was a surprise, as he lacked the popularity and religious credentials required at the time.

“A historical accident” transformed “a weak president into a weak Supreme Leader initially, and then into one of the most powerful Iranians of the last hundred years,” says Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.