Iraq ⁤Election 2025:​ Factions Vie for Power in Government Formation

Updated June ⁤09, 2025
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As Iraq prepares for parliamentary elections on Nov.11, the‌ political​ atmosphere is thick with anticipation.Regional volatility and divisions ​within ‍the Shia majority add ‍importance‍ to this​ election, twenty ⁤years after the 2005 landmark vote. The ⁢real political drama, however,⁢ will unfold⁤ post-election as power plays and alliances take‍ shape in the ​government formation process.

Candidates from ‍the ‍shia, Sunni, and Kurdish blocs will ​maneuver to​ gain ⁤leverage and build⁤ consensus. Competition⁢ is particularly intense within the Shia community. The ​2021 election ‌resulted in a tumultuous 12-month government⁢ formation, ⁢including a failed attempt to⁣ exclude Shia parliamentarians, mass resignations, and clashes between rival factions.the hope is that⁤ the next government formation will be ‍less violent.

The Kurdish ​Question

The ‍Kurdish⁤ regional elections in October 2024 serve as a bellwether for the national elections. In ​those elections, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) secured 39 seats, a decrease of six, while the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) gained​ two, totaling 23.‌ The New Generation Party took ⁢15 seats, and Kurdish Islamists secured seven.

A similar breakdown is expected⁢ in the fall elections. The KDP will‌ likely secure about⁣ one and a half times as many⁤ seats as the PUK, with opposition and Islamist parties collectively averaging the seats of the two⁤ main parties. The distribution of offices within the regional ⁣government‌ is anticipated to feature a potential⁢ deal ‌between the KDP ​and the PUK ⁣for dividing the Kurdish “share” of the national government.

Bafel Talabani,president of‌ the PUK,proposed a unified Kurdish bloc at the Baghdad Dialog conference in February. This marks a potential shift from 2021 when the KDP allied‌ with the Sadrists. A unified bloc could exert more ⁤influence over government formation, potentially⁣ securing policy‍ concessions,‌ especially regarding salary‍ distribution and ⁤oil exports. ​Despite signals of cooperation,tensions between the KDP and‌ PUK could ‌hinder this move.

The Sunni Component

A ‌key question⁤ for Iraq’s Sunni arabs is ⁣the extent to which power will shift‍ from Mohammed al ⁤Halbousi’s Taqqadum party⁣ to smaller parties. The 2021 elections solidified ⁤Halbousi’s position, with his party securing ​37 seats.‌ though, Halbousi’s removal ⁢from parliament in November 2023 weakened his power. Rival Sunni blocs are expected to chip away at⁢ Halbousi’s seat total, diminishing his majority.

Sources anticipate that the Azm Alliance will gain seats, while the Decisive Reform list should increase its seats from three to between ⁢five and seven. ⁢Additionally, the new ⁤list of Yazan al jabouri, partnered with former ⁤Speaker Salim al Jabouri, could gain five to eight ⁤seats.These gains will⁤ likely come at​ the expense of ‌halbousi’s ⁣Taqqadum ⁤candidates, complicating government formation.

The Shia House

Pro-Iranian ⁢factions ⁤in Iraq,⁤ aligned under the Shia Coordination Framework, are vying for dominance⁢ while seeking to maintain their credentials as‍ champions of the ⁤Islamic resistance. This occurs ⁤amid⁤ an evolving ‌political landscape. Nouri al Maliki, a veteran Shia politician, feels increasingly threatened by Prime Minister⁤ Muhammad Shia al Sudani. Sudani⁤ has navigated Iraqi politics, striving to keep the country out of the geopolitical crossfire between Washington and ‍Tehran.

Muqtada al Sadr unexpectedly announced he is stepping back from ⁣politics, citing a tainted political landscape.While initially forbidding his supporters‌ from ‍voting,⁤ Sadr has urged his base to update‌ voter IDs.⁢ The Sadrists ‌may welcome disillusioned ‍cadres from the Coordination Framework alliance, provided they are not perceived as corrupt. Historically, the Sadrists have ​favored playing the opposition card while reaping benefits from the‌ existing system.

Reportedly, the Sadrists are eager to ⁢learn from the strategic ​missteps made⁤ during the post-2021 elections government formation crisis.

what’s⁢ next

As Iraq moves toward the November elections, the interplay between Shia,‍ sunni, and Kurdish factions will determine the composition of the next government.⁤ The ability of these groups to navigate internal divisions and external pressures ​will shape Iraq’s political ‌trajectory.