Ireland Housing Crisis: 15-Year Outlook
Here’s a summary of the key points from the provided text regarding Ireland’s housing situation:
* Demand to Peak in Early 2030s: Housing demand is expected to peak in the early 2030s and won’t fully normalize until at least 2040 due to ”pent-up demand.”
* Significant Supply Increase Needed: To meet demand, housing supply needs to accelerate substantially, reaching 60,000 units by 2030 (compared to 30,300 delivered last year).This will require a considerable increase in the residential construction workforce (potentially 50,000 more workers).
* Social Housing Component: The projection assumes 25% of new builds after 2030 will be social housing, with 26% of renters eligible for social housing support (HAP/RAS).
* Rising Exchequer Costs: The cost of housing for the government is projected to rise to 2.3% of national income at it’s peak, then fall as demand normalizes.
* Dramatic Price & Rent Increases: House prices have risen 91% from 2015-2024, while rents have increased by 78% – significantly outpacing overall inflation (22%).
* Economic Impact: High housing costs are seen as a threat to the Irish economy, potentially impacting the ability to attract and retain skilled workers.
* Long-Term Outlook: The report, “Future Forty: A Fiscal and Economic Outlook to 2065,” assesses the economic and fiscal challenges facing Ireland until 2065, considering factors like demographic trends, household size preferences, and global megatrends (climate change, digitalization, population aging).