The relationship between the United States and Europe is undergoing a significant shift, marked by a more critical stance from the current U.S. Administration under President Donald Trump. While some observers question the future of the transatlantic alliance, recent developments suggest Europe remains a consequential global player, capable of navigating challenges and forging its own path.
The Trump administration has openly expressed skepticism towards Europe, characterizing it as “woke,” bureaucratic, and out of step with a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape. A recent National Security Strategy (NSS) reportedly warned of “civilizational erasure” in Europe and even suggested support for illiberal political movements. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has seemingly called for Europe to adopt a more “MAGA”-aligned approach to maintain a strong alliance with the United States.
Despite this rhetoric, Europe has demonstrated resilience and agency in the past year. The European Union’s commitment to a rules-based international order and its geoeconomic tools remain relevant in a world increasingly defined by uncertainty. European states have collectively managed to navigate the complexities of the Trump administration while simultaneously providing crucial support to Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression.
A key aspect of Europe’s strategy has been a proactive approach to trade liberalization. While globalization faces headwinds and multilateral institutions like the World Trade Organization struggle, the EU has successfully negotiated and concluded several bilateral trade agreements. In recent weeks, the EU finalized a deal with Mercosur, a South American trading bloc, and is nearing completion of talks with India. The potential EU-India free trade agreement would create a combined market of approximately 2 billion consumers, making it the largest such area globally. Existing agreements are in place with Japan, Canada, Indonesia, and New Zealand, with negotiations underway with Australia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and the United Arab Emirates. Even the agreement with the United States, initially brokered between European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Trump, may be revisited following a recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling on tariffs.
On the military front, Europe is also demonstrating increased capacity. Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to pose a significant threat, but European nations have consistently provided Ukraine with the support needed to defend itself. European diplomacy has also played a role in preventing a potentially destabilizing agreement between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin that could have divided Ukraine. NATO members are increasing defense spending, with the EU allocating funds to boost the production of ammunition, tanks, and drones. Combined, European military expenditures currently surpass Russia’s by a factor of three, reaching $480 billion compared to Russia’s $149 billion.
European leaders have adopted a nuanced approach to the current U.S. Administration, combining flattery with firm pushback when necessary. This includes pledges to increase defense spending, procure U.S. Arms and energy, and invest in the U.S. Economy. While the fulfillment of these promises may vary, the perception of commitment is strategically important. Leaders like British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz have consistently voiced their support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, ensuring Ukraine is not forced into unfavorable negotiations.
Despite the challenges, cooperation between Europe and the United States continues in areas of mutual interest, such as critical minerals. Transatlantic trade and investment also remain robust. Efforts are underway to strengthen partnerships with U.S. States, as evidenced by a recent $1 billion green investment project announced by a British energy firm in California, following meetings between California Governor Gavin Newsom and European leaders in Munich.
Several structural factors underpin Europe’s continued influence. Despite a declining share of global GDP – from nearly 30 percent in the early 2000s to just under 15 percent in 2025 – Europe remains the world’s third-largest economy. This economic size provides significant leverage in international negotiations. The EU’s emphasis on norms and rules, often criticized as bureaucratic, also creates a degree of certainty and predictability that is increasingly valuable in a volatile world. Once a trade agreement is finalized, it is legally binding and less susceptible to abrupt changes based on political whims.
Even with the rise of illiberal and anti-establishment parties in some member states, the EU’s institutional framework has proven resilient. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, for example, has maintained a centrist approach to European policy despite her initial rhetoric, recognizing the benefits of EU membership and access to funding.
While Europe’s lack of traditional “hard power” has been a frequent criticism, this is evolving. Increased defense spending and the development of advanced military technologies are enhancing Europe’s security capabilities. Europe’s approach to military development is less overtly threatening than that of some other global powers, making it an attractive partner for defense cooperation, particularly with countries in the Global South. France, for instance, has become a major supplier of military technology to India, surpassing Russia in that role.
Europe is actively pursuing a strategy of global engagement, seeking economic opportunities and technological partnerships worldwide. French President Macron’s recent visit to New Delhi for the AI Impact Summit, following similar visits by other European leaders, underscores this commitment. While Europe is unlikely to replace the United States as the central pillar of the multilateral order, its efforts, in conjunction with like-minded nations like Japan, Canada, Australia, India, and Brazil, can contribute to a more stable and equitable global order.
