Israel and US Unlikely to Strike Iran Before Elections
- Israel and the United States do not intend to launch a military strike against Iran before upcoming Knesset elections unless Tehran initiates an attack, senior Israeli security officials...
- Hegseth traveled to Israel for a secret visit to meet American troops stationed at Ovda Air Base and confer with Israeli leadership.
- Iran faces severe economic crisis and growing international isolation and has yet to make a final decision on how to proceed, according to Israeli security assessments.
Israel and the United States do not intend to launch a military strike against Iran before upcoming Knesset elections unless Tehran initiates an attack, senior Israeli security officials assess. This evaluation follows an October 19, 2026, meeting at Ovda Air Base involving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Israel Katz, and U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth.
Military Readiness at Ovda Air Base and Strategic Coordination
Hegseth traveled to Israel for a secret visit to meet American troops stationed at Ovda Air Base and confer with Israeli leadership. Senior Israeli political officials describe strategic coordination between Jerusalem and Washington as excellent, noting full agreement on the objective of bringing down the Iranian regime. The Israel Defense Forces have prepared all the operational plans required for a strike, though officials emphasize that any preemptive action would occur only upon the explicit orders of Israel’s political leadership if solid intelligence confirms an imminent Iranian offensive.
Tehran Economic Pressures and Regional Proxy Strategy
Iran faces severe economic crisis and growing international isolation and has yet to make a final decision on how to proceed, according to Israeli security assessments. Tehran remains hesitant to launch a direct strike due to fears of a powerful joint Israeli-American response targeting its energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and the possible elimination of its military and political leadership, including Mojtaba Khamenei and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Ahmad Vahidi. Instead, Israeli officials state that Iran may utilize regional proxies and disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to drive up global energy prices ahead of the November 3 U.S. elections.
Post-Election Military Planning and Congressional Timeline
A large-scale joint military operation against the Iranian regime is viewed as more likely only after the U.S. elections on November 3 and before the new Congress is sworn in on January 3. Israeli political officials assess that President Trump prefers to avoid major pre-election military action that risks higher energy prices, American casualties, or perceptions of failure. Following the Knesset elections, Trump may pressure Israel’s political system to form a national unity government to secure broader domestic backing for potential action against Iran while simultaneously working to expand the Abraham Accords.
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