Israel-Turkey Relations: Geopolitical Tensions and the Iran Factor

Israel is actively seeking to turn Washington against Ankara as tensions between the two countries escalate amid the broader regional conflict involving Iran, according to recent reporting and analysis. This effort comes as Israel views Turkey’s growing alignment with Iran and its criticism of Israeli military actions as a strategic threat to its regional interests.

The push by Israel to influence U.S. Policy toward Turkey reflects a deepening rift that has been developing since the Gaza war following October 7, 2023. By May 2024, Turkey had imposed a comprehensive trade embargo on Israel, marking the first time Ankara deployed such extensive economic measures against another country for purely political reasons. This move followed years of deteriorating relations that began unraveling with Israel’s Operation Cast Lead against Gaza in 2008 and accelerated after the Mavi Marmara flotilla incident in 2010.

Analysts note that with Iran’s role as the dominant pole of regional opposition to Israel now in question due to the ongoing U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, a new rivalry is hardening between Israel and Turkey. This rivalry carries different stakes and risks than previous confrontations and has a far more unpredictable trajectory. The conflict has extended beyond traditional flashpoints, with both countries now competing for influence across multiple fronts including security, energy, and geopolitical alliances.

Turkey’s credibility as a potential mediator in regional conflicts is being challenged by Israeli hostility and its own domestic political dynamics. While Turkey’s geographic position and access to various stakeholders could strengthen its mediation credentials, these factors are limited by the current state of affairs. The Turkish-Israeli rivalry is considered one of the most complex patterns of regional repositioning, where strategies of regional powers intersect in ways that reshape spheres of influence and alliances.

The evolving situation has prompted discussions about new security mechanisms, including proposals related to a ‘Terror-Free Türkiye’ process. At the same time, concerns are growing about a potential regional arms race, with reports indicating that Turkish officials have announced plans to boost production of medium- and long-range missiles in response to regional developments, particularly the Israeli-Iranian conflict.

As the war in Iran enters its second week, the secondary shift in regional dynamics—particularly the emerging fault line between Israel and Turkey—has become increasingly consequential. Understanding this development requires examining both the structural forces pushing the two states apart and the domestic political dynamics that could turn competitive rhetoric into irreversible confrontation. The outcome of this rivalry will likely have lasting implications for the strategic order of the Middle East.