Israel, US & Iran: Imperialism and the New Middle East Order
The ongoing conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran, labelled “Operation Epic Fury” and initiated on , represents a deliberate attempt to reshape the geopolitical order in the Middle East, mirroring historical patterns of imperialistic conflict. Both Tel Aviv and Washington appear to be operating under the assumption of eventual victory, aiming not merely to dismantle the current Iranian clerical regime but to fundamentally alter the power dynamics in their favor.
This pursuit of a new status quo echoes the observations of Hans J. Morgenthau, who argued that victorious nations often seek to establish permanent dominance over defeated adversaries. Recent examples, such as Russia’s war in Ukraine and the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, demonstrate this principle in action, resulting in altered regional balances of power benefiting Russia and Azerbaijan respectively.
Tehran’s recent foreign policy decisions, including its support for both Russia’s actions in Ukraine and Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh, appear to stem from a strategic alignment with Moscow. Iran initially adjusted its stance on the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute in September 2020, endorsing Baku’s claim to territorial integrity despite previous support for Armenia. This shift, however, was not driven by internal pressures from Iran’s Azeri population, but rather by Russia’s evolving strategic partnership with Turkey. The resulting authoritarian system in the region serves as a self-preservation mechanism for the Khamenei regime.
Armenia, historically a close trade and economic partner of Iran, sharing a 44-kilometer border along the Araks River, found itself largely isolated during the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War. Despite anticipating Iranian deterrence against Azerbaijani and Turkish aggression, Yerevan received limited support. This occurred despite Armenia’s membership in the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), where Iran holds observer status, providing access to a market of approximately 200 million consumers and a route for Iran to bypass Western sanctions.
The current conflict with Iran also highlights the consequences of disregarding international law. Nations perceived as consistently violating international norms risk losing trade, investment, and international credibility, as evidenced by the sanctions imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. As of early 2026, 547 international companies had completely exited the Russian market.
However, Russia has managed to mitigate the impact of these sanctions through support from allies, including Turkey, China, and Iran. Since October 2021, Iran has reportedly supplied Russia with $2.7 billion worth of missiles, including air-defense and ballistic missiles, and Shahed-136 drones, even enabling Russia to begin local production of similar weaponry. This assistance has allowed Russia to withstand Western pressure and pursue a peace framework in Ukraine that includes territorial concessions.
The Kremlin advocates for a system where states prioritize their own vital interests, political independence, and territorial sovereignty. This approach, however, risks establishing a fragmented international order characterized by competing authoritarian blocs, each exerting influence over weaker states within its sphere. Iran’s support for this arrangement is contingent on its own security not being threatened, a condition that is now demonstrably compromised by the escalating conflict.
The joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, beginning on , have shattered any remaining possibility of a diplomatic resolution. The human toll is mounting, with over 700 people killed, including approximately 150 girls in Minab. The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei marks a pivotal moment, forcing a leadership transition amidst ongoing warfare. Retaliatory attacks by Tehran have targeted Israel and military bases in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states hosting U.S. Forces, resulting in at least ten deaths in Israel and the deaths of six U.S. Service members. Missile and drone attacks have also targeted civilian infrastructure in GCC states, including airports, oil refineries, and hotels, as well as the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh.
The spiraling conflict endangers millions of lives and disrupts a critical energy corridor and aviation hub, with global economic repercussions. The fate of Iran’s theocratic government remains uncertain, with the Trump Administration openly calling for regime change. The conflict has also derailed previously stalled U.S. Talks with Iran regarding its nuclear program, which were initially disrupted by a 12-day war between Iran and Israel last June. President Trump, in a video statement, warned of potential American casualties, acknowledging that “that often happens in war.”