Italy Inflation & Exports: September Data
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Italian Inflation Slows in September 2025: Key Findings
Table of Contents
Overview of September 2025 Inflation Data
In September 2025, the national consumer price index (NIC) for the entire community, including tobacco, showed a monthly decrease of 0.2% and an annual increase of 1.6%, confirming preliminary estimates reported by Istat. This indicates a slowing of inflationary pressures in italy.
Trends in the “Shopping Cart”
Prices of goods in the ”shopping cart” – essential food, home, and personal care items – decelerated from +3.4% to +3.1% on a trend basis.High-frequency purchase products accelerated slightly,moving from +2.3% to +2.6% (revised from a provisional 2.7%). This divergence suggests varying pressures on different consumer spending categories.
Diverging Spending Aggregates
The stability of the overall inflation rate masks differentiated trends across various spending categories. Specifically:
- Transport Services: Prices are slowing down (from +3.5% to +2.4%).
- Unprocessed Foods: Prices are slowing down (from +5.6% to +4.8%).
- regulated Energy Companies: Prices are accelerating (from +12.9% to +13.9%).
- Non-Regulated Energy Prices: prices are recovering (from -6.3% to -5.2%).
Underlying inflation, excluding energy and fresh food, also decelerated (from +2.1% to +2.0%), as did inflation excluding energy goods alone (from +2.3% to +2.1%).
Monthly Drivers of Inflation Change
The negative cyclical change in the general index was primarily driven by decreases in transport services (-3.3%) and processed foods (-0.5%). This decline was partially offset by growth in unprocessed food prices (+0.6%).
Impact on Different Income Levels
In the third quarter of 2025, consumer prices, measured by the IPCA, showed smaller increases for families with low spending levels (+1.7%) and slightly higher increases for those with high spending levels (+1.8%). This indicates that inflation is not impacting all households equally.
Specifically,food prices decreased by 0.1% in August and increased by 3.7% compared to September 2024. Alcoholic beverage prices also saw an increase.
Data Table: Inflation Rates by Category (Q3 2025)
| Category | Inflation Rate (Q3 2025) |
|---|---|
| Low Spending Households | +1.7% |
| High Spending Households | +1.8% |
| Food | +3.7% (Year-over-Year) |
| Alcoholic beverages |
|