HOUSTON, TX – The Houston Rockets are heavily favored against the Utah Jazz tonight, but analysts are questioning whether Houston’s offensive struggles will make for an easy win. Despite a roster boasting significant talent, the Rockets are facing difficulties consistently putting points on the board, a vulnerability the Jazz may be able to exploit.
The game is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on Peacock. As of Monday, February 23, 2026, the Rockets hold a record of 34-21, while the Jazz are 18-39.
According to data from BetMGM Sportsbook, the Rockets are significant moneyline favorites at -900, meaning a $900 bet would yield a $100 profit. The Jazz are listed at +575, offering a potential $575 payout on a $100 wager. The spread has Houston favored by 13.5 points.
The season series between the two teams is currently tied 1-1. In their most recent matchup on December 1, 2025, the Jazz upset the Rockets 133-125 in Salt Lake City as an 11.5-point underdog, with the over (235.5) hitting. Earlier in the season, the Rockets dominated the Jazz 129-101, also in Salt Lake City, covering as 12-point favorites while the under (233.5) cashed.
Recent form suggests a challenging night for the Rockets’ offense. They rank 26th in offensive rating over their last 12 games, performing worse than even the Washington Wizards. Their average of 104.9 points per game during this stretch is second-to-last in the league. Despite this, the Rockets are still favored due to their home-court advantage and overall season record.
The Jazz, while struggling have shown defensive improvement recently, ranking 10th in defensive rating since February 1st. This defensive uptick could pose a problem for a Rockets team desperately seeking offensive solutions.
Experts are particularly focused on the Rockets’ team total. The current line is set at 120.5, a number considered inflated given Houston’s recent scoring woes. The Rockets haven’t surpassed this total in their last 12 games.
One potential avenue for improvement for the Rockets lies in ball movement. Second-year guard Reed Sheppard has been averaging 4.0 assists over his last five games, exceeding 3.5 assists in three of those contests. However, the Jazz currently rank dead last in the league in opponent assists per possession, suggesting they may be able to limit Sheppard’s playmaking opportunities.
Rebounding could also be a key factor. Lauri Markkanen has exceeded his rebound total in five of his last six games, and a strong rebounding performance from him could help the Jazz control possession and limit the Rockets’ scoring chances.
A same-game parlay gaining traction among analysts includes betting the Rockets team total under 120.5, Reed Sheppard over 3.5 assists, and Lauri Markkanen over 4.5 rebounds. Another parlay suggestion focuses on rebounding, with Markkanen, Ace Bailey, Kevin Durant, and Amen Thompson all projected to exceed their rebound totals.
Looking at betting trends, the Rockets have consistently hit the game total under in 21 of their last 25 games, providing a 60% return on investment. This trend further supports the argument that points may be at a premium in this matchup.
The game takes place at Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. Fans can watch the game on Peacock.
