America’s economic landscape is increasingly defined by a widening gap between those who are thriving and those who are struggling, a phenomenon economists are calling a K-shaped recovery. While higher-income households continue to drive spending, lower-income households are facing headwinds from inflation and a sluggish job market. This divergence, evident as early as , shows no immediate signs of abating, with some analysts predicting it could persist until .
Several factors contribute to this K-shaped economy. Rising stock prices and home values have disproportionately benefited wealthier Americans, while inflation has hit essential goods and services, such as groceries and restaurant meals, particularly hard for those with lower incomes. However, a key driver of this disparity is consumer spending patterns, which vary significantly based on educational attainment.
Recent analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York highlights this educational divide. A dataset released on , analyzed monthly consumer spending data for 200,000 Americans between and . The findings reveal a clear trend: retail spending among those without a college degree rose by approximately 4% during that period, adjusted for inflation. In contrast, spending among those with a college degree increased by nearly 6%. Specifically, degree-holders averaged a 0.14% increase in spending each month relative to the previous month, while their counterparts without a degree managed only 0.05%.
“Despite the relatively more difficult labor market faced by college graduates in 2025, they are continuing to consume more than nongraduates do at the same or higher rate than they did in the previous few years,” researchers at the New York Fed wrote. “The difference in the trend in retail spending between college graduates and nongraduates is consistent with the story of a ‘K-shaped economy.’”
The Role of Spending and Wealth
Consumer spending is a critical component of the K-shaped economic narrative, explaining why the economy continues to grow despite inflationary pressures and job market challenges. The top 10% of Americans now account for around 50% of all spending, according to Moody’s Analytics. The New York Fed’s analysis adds a new dimension to this understanding by focusing on the impact of educational attainment on spending habits.
Educational attainment has long been a significant factor in economic outcomes in the United States, influencing where people live, their employment status, and even their political ideologies. The finding that college graduates have greater spending power is not entirely new. Government researchers with the Social Security Administration demonstrated a decade ago that lifetime earnings for degree-holders could be between $630,000 and $1.5 million higher than those of high school graduates.
However, these findings come at a time when the value of a college degree is being increasingly questioned by young Americans. New college registrations are declining, with affordability concerns, a challenging entry-level job market, and fears about the potential for artificial intelligence to automate jobs all contributing to this trend. Some are turning to community colleges, where undergraduate registrations surpassed those at four-year colleges in the fall of . Others are pursuing skills in trades, which are seen as offering better job security and potentially higher wages, less susceptible to disruption from AI.
The data suggests that interrupting one’s education altogether may be the least favorable option. November data from the St. Louis Fed revealed that the unemployment rate for those with only a high school diploma has consistently been at least 2.3 percentage points higher than that of college graduates, a gap that widens during economic downturns.
Despite the increased spending power of college graduates, concerns remain about their financial habits. Trends like “treat culture” and “doom spending” suggest that younger generations, including Gen Z, may be more inclined to spend than save compared to previous generations at the same age. Nevertheless, Gen Z is projected to become the highest-spending generation in history, with their combined income potentially reaching $74 trillion over the coming decades. Their role in shaping the K-shaped economy is likely to become even more significant in the years ahead.
The Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut may not provide immediate relief for all Americans, particularly those in the lower income bracket who are already struggling with inflation and a tight labor market. The K-shaped economy suggests that the benefits of monetary policy adjustments may not be evenly distributed, further exacerbating existing inequalities.
