Kazakhstan is preparing to host a Regional Ecological Summit in April, aiming to address pressing environmental challenges facing Central Asia and the wider Eurasian region. The summit, initially proposed by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev at the 2023 Astana International Forum, will focus on climate transition, adaptation, economic resilience, food security, sustainable water management, and combating air pollution.
The urgency of the summit stems from a growing recognition that environmental issues are no longer confined to national borders but pose significant threats to regional security and sustainable development. A key concern is the rapidly shrinking Caspian Sea, the world’s largest inland body of water, which threatens ecosystems, fisheries, navigation, and the economies of the five littoral states: Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan.
According to data from Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Ecology, the Caspian Sea’s surface area has decreased by more than 31,000 square kilometers since 2006, with water levels falling by approximately 1.5 to 2 meters. Scientists at the University of Leeds have warned that continued decline could release industrial contaminants and salt from exposed seabed, mirroring the disastrous consequences seen with the drying of the Aral Sea. The potential impacts extend to altered regional climates, decreased rainfall affecting agriculture, and disruptions to vital trade routes, including the Middle Corridor, which connects Kazakhstan to Europe via Azerbaijan and Türkiye.
The summit’s agenda includes the Sustainable Management of Natural Resources and will specifically address “joint efforts to protect ecosystems, preserve biodiversity, manage water resources, and address the environmental challenges of the Aral and Caspian Seas.” Organizers envision outcomes including joint climate action decisions, a regional finance mechanism, new transboundary projects, a Regional Program to support ecological research, strengthened interstate cooperation, and a common framework for implementing environmental solutions.
Preparations for the summit have been underway since March 2025, with a series of regional consultations involving environmental ministers from Central Asian countries. A key outcome of these meetings, culminating in a session in Aktau, Kazakhstan, in August 2025, was the adoption of an updated concept for the summit and a draft Joint Declaration of the Heads of State of Central Asia. The Central Asia Climate Change Conference (CACCC), organized by the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC), will be held alongside the summit.
Legal frameworks for Caspian Sea protection already exist, including the 2003 Framework Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the Caspian Sea (Tehran Convention), which entered into force in 2006, and the 2018 Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea. A new protocol on Environmental Impact Assessment came into force in November 2025, requiring transboundary environmental standards for major infrastructure projects. However, despite these agreements, the situation remains critical.
The success of the summit hinges on securing genuine regional cooperation and commitment. Concerns exist regarding the varying levels of environmental prioritization among Caspian Sea states. Iran, for example, has a history of prioritizing economic development over environmental protection, as evidenced by the ongoing crisis at Lake Urmia. Similarly, Turkmenistan’s record on environmental issues, including methane leaks and water management, raises questions about its commitment to regional cooperation. President Tokayev reportedly discussed Caspian Sea protection with Russian President Vladimir Putin during their meeting in November 2025.
The Regional Ecological Summit presents Kazakhstan with an opportunity to solidify its regional leadership on environmental issues. However, the summit must move beyond declarations and produce concrete, actionable projects with short-, medium-, and long-term goals. Failure to address the Caspian Sea’s decline could have devastating consequences for the region’s ecosystems, economies, and the communities that depend on it, potentially mirroring the tragedy of the Aral Sea. The summit’s outcome will be a crucial test of Central Asia’s ability to address shared environmental challenges and forge a path towards sustainable development.
This article is based on a presentation given by the author titled “The Caspian Sea at the Regional Ecological Summit 2026” for the webinar Water Security and Transboundary Cooperation in Central Asia organized by George Washington University’s Central Asia Program and Civitas University in December 2025.
