Korea Gallup: Single Candidate Preferences at 39%, Kim Moon-soo at 30%
poll Shows Han Deok-soo Leading kim Mun-soo in Presidential Candidacy Unification
Table of Contents
- poll Shows Han Deok-soo Leading kim Mun-soo in Presidential Candidacy Unification
- Poll Shows Han Deok-soo Leading Kim Mun-soo in Presidential Candidacy Unification: A Q&A
- What does the recent poll reveal about the race to unify conservative presidential candidacies in South Korea?
- who conducted the poll and when was it conducted?
- What percentage of respondents favored Han Deok-soo as the unified candidate?
- What percentage of respondents supported Kim Mun-soo as the unified candidate?
- Is the difference between Han Deok-soo and Kim Mun-soo statistically significant?
- How did the poll reveal information about support within the People Power Party (PPP)?
- What did JoongAng Ilbo report about the preferences of kim Mun-soo’s initial supporters?
- How did Democratic Party supporters respond in the poll?
- What were the results of the four-way race scenario?
- How did the poll explore conservative unification scenarios?
- What were the results of the head-to-head matchups between Lee Jae-myung and the conservative candidates?
- What was the methodology of the poll?
- Key Takeaways from the Poll Results
SEOUL, South Korea (May 6, 2025) – A recent poll indicates that independent candidate Han Deok-soo holds a lead over Kim Mun-soo in the race to unify conservative presidential candidacies. The poll, conducted by Korea Gallup and commissioned by JoongAng Ilbo, surveyed 1,006 adults aged 18 or older via mobile phone between May 3rd and 4th.
The survey revealed that 39% of respondents favored Han Deok-soo as the unified candidate,while 30% supported Kim Mun-soo. This 9-percentage-point difference exceeds the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Twenty-nine percent expressed no opinion.
Support Within the People Power Party
Among supporters of the People Power Party, 65% backed Han Deok-soo for unification, compared to 27% for Kim Mun-soo. This suggests that Kim, despite recently being chosen as the party’s candidate, is not garnering full support from within the party ranks.
JoongAng Ilbo also reported that 30% of respondents who initially favored Kim as a general presidential candidate still preferred Han Deok-soo in a unification scenario.
Impact of Party Affiliation
Among Democratic Party supporters, 19% favored Han Deok-soo, while 37% supported Kim Mun-soo. this indicates a potential for “reverse choice,” where supporters of opposing parties strategically favor a candidate they believe woudl be a weaker opponent in the general election.
virtual Four-Way Contest
in a hypothetical four-way race, Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung garnered 47% support, followed by Han Deok-soo at 23%, Kim Mun-soo at 13%, and Lee Jun-seok of the Reform Party at 4%.
Conservative Unification Scenarios
The poll also explored scenarios involving conservative unification. In a three-way race with Kim Mun-soo as the unified candidate, Lee Jae-myung received 49% support, Kim 33%, and Lee Jun-seok 9%. If Han Deok-soo were the unified candidate, Lee Jae-myung received 49%, Han 36%, and Lee Jun-seok 6%. In this scenario, the gap between Lee Jae-myung and Han Deok-soo falls within the margin of error.
head-to-Head Matchups
In a hypothetical head-to-head contest, Lee Jae-myung led Kim Mun-soo 52% to 39%.Against han Deok-soo, Lee Jae-myung held a narrower lead of 51% to 41%.
Methodology
The poll had a response rate of 17.8%. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Further details can be found on the Central Election Review Committee website.
Poll Shows Han Deok-soo Leading Kim Mun-soo in Presidential Candidacy Unification: A Q&A
What does the recent poll reveal about the race to unify conservative presidential candidacies in South Korea?
A recent poll indicates that autonomous candidate Han Deok-soo leads Kim Mun-soo in the race to unify conservative presidential candidacies. The poll, conducted by Korea Gallup and commissioned by joongang Ilbo, surveyed 1,006 adults aged 18 or older via mobile phone between May 3rd and 4th.
who conducted the poll and when was it conducted?
The poll was conducted by Korea Gallup and commissioned by JoongAng Ilbo. It was conducted between May 3rd and 4th, surveying 1,006 adults.
What percentage of respondents favored Han Deok-soo as the unified candidate?
39% of respondents favored Han Deok-soo as the unified candidate.
What percentage of respondents supported Kim Mun-soo as the unified candidate?
30% of respondents supported Kim Mun-soo.
Is the difference between Han Deok-soo and Kim Mun-soo statistically significant?
Yes, the 9-percentage-point difference between Han Deok-soo and Kim Mun-soo exceeds the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
How did the poll reveal information about support within the People Power Party (PPP)?
Among supporters of the People Power Party, 65% backed Han Deok-soo for unification, compared to 27% for kim Mun-soo. This suggests Kim, despite recently being selected as the party’s candidate, isn’t receiving the full support from within the party ranks.
What did JoongAng Ilbo report about the preferences of kim Mun-soo’s initial supporters?
JoongAng Ilbo reported that 30% of respondents,who initially favored Kim as a general presidential candidate,still preferred Han deok-soo in a unification scenario.
How did Democratic Party supporters respond in the poll?
Among Democratic Party supporters, 19% favored Han Deok-soo, while 37% supported Kim Mun-soo. This indicates a potential for “reverse choice,” where opposing party supporters strategically favor a candidate they believe would be a weaker opponent in the general election.
What were the results of the four-way race scenario?
In a hypothetical four-way race, Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung garnered 47% support, followed by Han Deok-soo at 23%, Kim Mun-soo at 13%, and Lee Jun-seok of the Reform Party at 4%.
How did the poll explore conservative unification scenarios?
The poll explored scenarios involving conservative unification, including a three-way race with Kim Mun-soo as the unified candidate (Lee Jae-myung received 49% support, Kim 33%, and Lee jun-seok 9%). In a similar scenario with Han Deok-soo as the unified candidate, Lee Jae-myung received 49%, Han 36%, and Lee Jun-seok 6%. In this latter scenario, the gap between Lee Jae-myung and Han Deok-soo fell within the margin of error.
What were the results of the head-to-head matchups between Lee Jae-myung and the conservative candidates?
In a head-to-head contest, Lee Jae-myung led Kim Mun-soo 52% to 39%.Against Han Deok-soo, Lee Jae-myung held a narrower lead of 51% to 41%.
What was the methodology of the poll?
The poll had a response rate of 17.8%. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Further details can be found on the central Election Review Committee website.
Key Takeaways from the Poll Results
Here’s a summary of the key findings:
- Han Deok-soo leads Kim Mun-soo in the race to unify conservative presidential candidacies.
- Han Deok-soo receives significantly more support from People Power Party supporters than kim Mun-soo.
- In a four-way race, Lee Jae-myung leads, followed by Han Deok-soo.
- In head-to-head matchups, Lee jae-myung leads both Kim Mun-soo and Han Deok-soo.