The future of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem is increasingly uncertain, fueled by political headwinds and questions about her leadership. While a potential challenge to Senator Mike Rounds in South Dakota looms, the possibility of a forced departure from the Trump administration is also gaining traction, particularly as Democrats escalate calls for her impeachment.
The situation has been rapidly evolving since , when Customs and Border Patrol agents shot and killed Alex Pretti in Minneapolis. Noem has faced intense scrutiny from both sides of the aisle in the wake of the incident, with Democrats leading the charge for her removal. U.S. Representative Joyce Beatty has already filed articles of impeachment against Noem, citing concerns over ICE enforcement tactics.
Adding to the pressure, Noem’s relationship with the White House appears strained. Sources indicate President Trump has begun to rely more heavily on “border czar” Tom Homan to lead immigration enforcement efforts, effectively sidelining Noem. White House officials have reportedly grown frustrated with her performance, raising alarms among Republican midterm strategists who fear her deportation strategy could damage the party’s electoral prospects.
The possibility of Noem seeking alternative political avenues is also being discussed in South Dakota. Allies of Senator Rounds are preparing for a potential primary challenge, though they remain skeptical Noem will actually run. To enter the race, she would need to gather 2,171 signatures by the end of next month. A Noem advisor has stated she has no current plans to leave her post, but a Senate seat could offer a platform for defense against potential investigations stemming from her tenure at DHS, particularly if Democrats regain control of the House.
“It’s something people are talking about across the state,” one South Dakota Republican told reporters, requesting anonymity. “And based on everything I’ve been hearing, Mike Rounds would handily win that race.”
The current partial government shutdown, caused by congressional Democrats refusing to approve a new budget for Noem’s department, further complicates the situation. Republicans argue that Democratic calls for Noem’s removal make an immediate firing by President Trump less likely, as he has historically been reluctant to yield to political pressure when it comes to his Cabinet.
Prior to the shooting in Minneapolis, Republicans in South Dakota were already aware of polling efforts gauging voter preferences in a hypothetical matchup between Rounds and Noem. The identity of those commissioning the polls remains unknown.
The possibility of Noem running against Rounds has prompted discussions within the Trump administration about potentially delaying any changes to DHS leadership until after the primary filing deadline. However, opinions are divided, with some strategists believing Rounds is vulnerable. “Mike Rounds is so unpopular amongst Republican primary voters, he’d lose to a dead dog,” one national Republican strategist claimed, a sentiment disputed by Rounds’s allies. Rounds, 71, has a proven track record of success in statewide elections, having served two terms as governor and two terms as a Senator.
The relationship between Noem and Rounds has been described as cool, punctuated by occasional public disagreements. Notably, Rounds publicly criticized Noem’s decision to detail the killing of her family dog in her book, stating, “I don’t see how it helps…These dogs become a member of a family, you know. People identify with that.”
President Trump and Rounds have also experienced friction, particularly regarding the outcome of the presidential election, which Rounds acknowledged as “fair” – a position Trump continues to dispute. Despite these disagreements, Trump endorsed Rounds over the summer, posting on social media, “HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!”
Beyond a Senate run, Noem is also considering other options, including a potential bid for the U.S. House seat currently held by Representative Dusty Johnson, who is running for governor. She has also previously expressed interest in being selected as a running mate on a Republican ticket or launching a presidential campaign.
The situation remains fluid, and Noem’s political future is far from certain. The coming weeks will be critical as she navigates mounting pressure from Democrats, a strained relationship with the White House, and the possibility of a challenging primary battle back home in South Dakota.
