Latvia Braces for Unpredictable Early May Weather With Warmth and Storms

Latvian meteorologists have issued a detailed forecast for the start of May 2026, predicting a mix of warm temperatures, rain and potential thunderstorms as the country transitions from spring to early summer. According to the latest data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the weather in Latvia will fluctuate significantly over the coming days, with temperatures ranging from near-freezing at night to as high as +23°C during the day.

May Day Forecast: Sunny Start with Regional Variations

The first day of May is expected to be predominantly sunny across most of Latvia, though cloudier conditions are anticipated in the eastern regions, where light rain may occur in isolated areas. Meteorologists predict a light to moderate west or northwest wind, with daytime temperatures rising to between +14°C and +19°C. In some parts of Kurzeme and Zemgale, temperatures could reach as high as +20°C, while coastal areas, particularly along the western and northern shores, will remain cooler, hovering around +10°C.

Historical weather data for Riga provides additional context for the forecast. The lowest recorded temperature on May 1 occurred in 1944, when the mercury dropped to -5.4°C. In contrast, the highest temperature for the same date was recorded in 1934, reaching +27.2°C. While such extremes are not expected this year, the forecast underscores the unpredictability of early May weather in Latvia.

Weekend Weather: From Warmth to Storms

Saturday, May 2, is expected to be dry and mostly sunny, with a light to moderate west or southwest wind. Nighttime temperatures will drop to between +2°C and +7°C, while daytime highs will climb to +18°C to +22°C in most regions. However, cooler conditions will persist along the western coast of Kurzeme and the northern coast of Vidzeme, where temperatures may remain lower.

By Sunday, May 3, an atmospheric front is forecast to move across Latvia from the northwest, bringing brief rain to many areas and the possibility of thunderstorms in some regions. Before the front arrives, temperatures are expected to rise to +23°C in most parts of the country. Meteorologists caution that the reliability of forecasts beyond Sunday remains low, advising residents to prepare for rapid weather changes.

Early-Week Concerns: Snow and Strong Winds

While May is typically associated with warmer weather, recent forecasts have included warnings of wet snow and strong winds in parts of Latvia. On Monday, April 27, variable cloudiness was expected across the country, with light rain and wet snow possible in the eastern regions. Afternoon thunderstorms were also forecast, with daytime temperatures remaining between +5°C and +10°C. In Riga, conditions were expected to be mostly clear, though wind gusts could reach 15-18 meters per second.

The night leading into Monday was predicted to be mostly dry, with partial cloud cover and northwesterly winds gusting up to 19 meters per second. Along the coast of the Gulf of Riga, wind speeds could reach 20 meters per second at the start of the night. Overnight temperatures were expected to drop to between -1°C and +4°C, with Riga experiencing lows of +3°C to +4°C and no significant precipitation.

Improving Conditions by Midweek

Despite the early-week turbulence, meteorologists anticipate a significant warming trend by the middle of the week. By Wednesday, May 6, temperatures in many regions of Latvia are expected to rise to +20°C, marking a return to more seasonally appropriate conditions. However, the transition period may still include brief rain, snow, and hail in some areas, particularly on Monday and Tuesday, when gusty northern and northwestern winds of up to 13-19 meters per second are forecast.

The Latvian Environment, Geology, and Meteorology Centre (LVĢMC) has not issued any extreme weather warnings for the period, but residents are advised to stay informed about local forecasts, particularly if traveling or planning outdoor activities. The rapid shifts in temperature and precipitation highlight the need for flexibility in early May planning.

Historical Context and Public Reaction

The recent weather fluctuations have sparked discussions among Latvians about the unpredictability of spring weather. Social media and local news outlets have featured reactions from residents, some of whom have joked about the need to “pack for all four seasons” when leaving the house. The contrast between the current forecast and the historical extremes—such as the -5.4°C recorded in 1944—has also been a topic of conversation, with many expressing relief that such low temperatures are not expected this year.

For now, meteorologists emphasize that while the overall trend points to warming temperatures, the coming days will require vigilance. “We need to be prepared for anything,” one forecaster noted, reflecting the low confidence in long-range predictions for this time of year.