Kyiv, Ukraine – As the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches, the question of Kyiv’s long-term security and the conditions for a potential peace settlement remain central to international diplomacy. Latvia, a staunch supporter of Ukraine, continues to emphasize the need for sustained and predictable military aid, while also advocating for Ukraine’s eventual membership in NATO and the European Union as the most reliable path to lasting security.
Latvian Ambassador to Ukraine, Andrejs Pildegovics, has consistently articulated Riga’s position, stressing that any negotiated settlement must respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity. “The violations of the Budapest Memorandum are a clear example of Russia’s unreliability when signing letters of intent or documents that do not provide for concrete safeguards and mechanisms,” Pildegovics stated, referencing the 1994 agreement in which Ukraine relinquished its nuclear arsenal in exchange for security assurances that were ultimately disregarded by Russia.
Current diplomatic efforts, including discussions between the United States and both Russia and Ukraine, are viewed with cautious optimism by Latvian officials. While acknowledging the positive momentum of trilateral talks covering a broad range of issues, skepticism remains regarding Russia’s intentions. “Invāzija un agresija joprojām turpinās,” Pildegovics noted, highlighting the ongoing attacks, including strikes on civilian infrastructure. Latvia firmly supports a “just, stable and respectful peace” grounded in the principles of the UN Charter and international law, with Ukraine’s territorial integrity as a fundamental prerequisite.
The issue of territory remains the most significant obstacle to any potential agreement. Russia seeks to alter Ukraine’s borders by force and bring the country under its control, a goal Ukraine vehemently resists. According to Pildegovics, any agreement involving territory would be a concession Ukraine is currently unwilling to make. “Ukraina ir gatava kompromisiem, bet tie neparedz atsacīšanos no savām teritorijām,” echoed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, emphasizing Kyiv’s readiness for compromise but not at the expense of its sovereign land.
Reports suggesting that the White House might be pressuring Ukraine to cede territory have been officially denied by U.S. Officials. However, Latvia urges continued strong U.S. Support for Ukraine, recognizing its crucial role as a mediator. “Mēs zinām ASV aicinājumus abām pusēm deeskalēt situāciju,” Pildegovics said, while also asserting that Russia and Ukraine are not equally responsible for the conflict, characterizing Russia as the aggressor and Ukraine as the victim. The conflict, he emphasized, extends beyond Ukraine’s borders, posing a threat to the international order.
Beyond territorial disputes, Russia’s demands extend to the political future of Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has repeatedly stated that Moscow will not reconcile itself to a “Nazi” regime in Kyiv and seeks guarantees that Ukraine will not be “anti-Russian,” implying a desire for a pro-Kremlin puppet government. Latvia views these demands as confirmation of Russia’s true objectives: not merely to secure territory, but to fundamentally alter Ukraine’s political orientation.
Recent Russian military activity, including attacks near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and increased strikes on Odesa, demonstrates the breadth of Russia’s ambitions. Russian officials have openly discussed the concept of “Novorossiya” – New Russia – and the possibility of seizing control of the entire Black Sea coast. “Pašlaik Putina definētie kara mērķi nav sasniegti,” Pildegovics observed, indicating that Russia’s ultimate goals remain unfulfilled.
Zelenskyy recently criticized Europe for insufficient resolve in supporting Ukraine, particularly in addressing the country’s urgent energy needs during a harsh winter. Latvia acknowledges this frustration, pointing to the EU’s recent €90 billion loan to Ukraine as a timely response, but recognizing that further assistance is required. “Zelenska runa ir jāskatās pašreizējo apstākļu kontekstā,” Pildegovics explained, noting the dire circumstances facing Ukraine as Russia targets its energy infrastructure.
While European financial support is substantial, some argue it remains lower than the amount Europe pays Russia for natural gas. Baltic and Nordic countries are actively advocating for increased military and economic aid to Ukraine within the EU framework. Latvia believes that a strong and secure Ukraine is vital not only for its own sake but also for the broader security of Europe.
Internally, Ukraine faces the challenge of integrating returning refugees and veterans into society after the war. Pildegovics estimates Notice approximately 900,000 veterans in Ukraine, many of whom will require physical and psychological rehabilitation. The reintegration process, along with addressing the potential for illicit arms proliferation and supporting children who have grown up during the conflict, will be complex and demanding. “Miers nebūs viegls,” he cautioned.
Concerns have been raised regarding statements made by Kirilo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate, about potential Russian aggression against the Baltic states. While urging vigilance and preparedness, Pildegovics stressed the importance of avoiding panic. “Mums nav jākrīt panikā,” he said, acknowledging the need to take Budanov’s warnings seriously while emphasizing that such threats should not be considered inevitable. He added that Budanov’s statements were also intended to convey a message to European leaders about the potential consequences of Ukraine’s defeat.
Looking ahead, Latvia remains committed to supporting Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration, advocating for its membership in both NATO and the EU as the most effective means of guaranteeing its long-term security. The path to peace will be arduous, but Latvia believes that a sovereign, independent, and secure Ukraine is essential for the stability and security of Europe.
