Latvia is facing a deepening demographic crisis, marked by a rapidly declining population, low birth rates, and a widening gap between the number of women and men, according to recent reports and public concerns voiced by citizens. The situation is prompting questions about the nation’s future economic viability and social fabric.
The country is losing between 18,000 and 20,000 inhabitants annually, a rate equivalent to the population of a medium-sized Latvian town, according to a report from the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) published in July 2024. This decline is driven by a negative natural increase – more deaths than births – and ongoing emigration. Since regaining independence in 1991, Latvia’s population has fallen by 780,000, from 2.66 million to its current level of 1.872 million, representing a decrease of almost one-third.
The scale of the problem has been recognized by Latvia’s political and intellectual elite since the 2007 economic crisis, but comprehensive measures to reverse the trend have yet to be implemented. A significant obstacle is the lack of social consensus on potential solutions, including the sensitive issue of immigration from outside the European Union. The OSW report highlights a lack of a cohesive political strategy to address the demographic challenges.
Adding to the concerns is the state of public health in Latvia, which is reportedly worse than that of other EU member states. The country is projected to have the shortest average life expectancy in Europe, at 71 years – eight years less than the EU average. Coupled with low birth rates – currently around 12,000 births per year – this contributes to the overall population decline.
Recent commentary from Latvian citizens, published by LASI.LV, reveals a growing sense of unease. Vilhelms Ļuta, a resident of Riga, pointed to a stark contrast between population growth during the Ulmanis era (characterized by an increase of 300,000 people and an annual natural increase exceeding 7,000) and the current decline of 200,000 since the restoration of independence. He described the situation as a “complete catastrophe.”
The demographic imbalance is further highlighted by a significant gender disparity. As of December 11, 2025, women outnumber men in Latvia by more than 80,000, a gap with notable consequences for family formation, workforce availability, and economic planning. This imbalance is a relatively recent development, and its long-term effects are still being assessed.
Economic concerns are also surfacing. Gunārs Godiņš, from Smiltene, questioned the reliance on imported dairy products despite reports of significant milk exports from Latvia, raising questions about the strength of domestic production. This reflects a broader anxiety about the country’s economic self-sufficiency.
Beyond demographics and economics, historical and political sensitivities are also present. Aivars Gedroics, from Daugavpils, called for a more thorough examination of past political decisions, specifically referencing the relationship between former Latvian President Valdis Zatlers and Russian President Vladimir Putin, including a reported gift of a Latvian hockey team jersey. He suggested that a deeper understanding of such historical events is necessary.
The challenges facing Latvia are not isolated. The country has consistently lagged behind its Baltic neighbors, Estonia and Lithuania, in terms of socio-economic advancement. While Estonia and Lithuania have positioned themselves as technological hubs, Latvia has struggled to keep pace, facing issues with infrastructure projects like Rail Baltica, where costs are escalating and EU funding is uncertain. A February 28, 2025, analysis by New Eastern Europe highlighted this disparity, noting that Latvia is often overlooked in discussions of Baltic progress.
The concerns extend to the realm of culture and national identity. Biruta Bēta, from Riga, expressed confusion over the handling of events surrounding Maestro Raimonds Pauls and a planned concert, questioning the communication methods used. This seemingly minor issue reflects a broader sense of unease about tradition, and transparency.
There are also calls for greater support for local businesses. Pēteris Pavlovičs, from Latgale, urged the State Revenue Service to alert the Ministry of Economy when businesses encounter difficulties, allowing for timely government assistance. Imants Sūna, from Iecava, suggested a system of recognizing athletes who place just outside the medal positions at the Olympic Games, acknowledging their achievements even without a podium finish.
Amidst these challenges, there are also expressions of hope and appreciation. Brigita Andermane, from Jaunjelgava, praised Latvian television’s coverage of the Olympic Games, finding it a source of positivity. Andris Rudzītis, from Riga, noted a trend of young people pursuing careers in the arts and entertainment, while acknowledging the need for better education and career guidance for athletes.
The confluence of demographic decline, economic anxieties, historical sensitivities, and social concerns paints a complex picture of Latvia’s current situation. Addressing these challenges will require a comprehensive and coordinated strategy, one that fosters social consensus and prioritizes long-term sustainability. The future of the nation, it seems, hinges on its ability to navigate these turbulent waters.
