Learning Loss: Why It Began Before the Pandemic and How States Are Recovering

On May 13, 2026, the release of the fourth annual Education Scorecard revealed that the decline in student math and reading scores across the United States was not a sudden result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Instead, the data indicates that the pandemic-era decline was a continuation of a decade-long learning recession that began years before the onset of the pandemic.

The Education Scorecard is a deep-dive analysis of student data produced by the Center for Education Policy Research at Harvard University and The Educational Opportunity Project at Stanford University.

The report provides a broader perspective on student performance, suggesting that public education has been unfairly blamed for declines that were already underway before school closures occurred.

The analysis found that math achievement among eighth- and fourth-graders rose steadily for nearly a quarter-century, from 1990 to 2013. However, the trend shifted after 2013, marking the beginning of the decline in performance that persisted through the pandemic.

Despite the long-term decline, the May 13, 2026, report highlights areas where progress is being made. Most states are currently seeing gains in math scores.

The report attributes some of this recovery to financial support, noting that federal relief dollars likely helped the lowest-income school districts mount a hearty comeback.

Recovery in reading scores has been more limited. According to the Scorecard, most states have not yet seen gains in reading performance.

The data shows a specific correlation between reading gains and policy. The states that have managed to improve reading scores are those that implemented legislative changes to the way reading is taught in their schools.

The findings are based on data from the majority of U.S. States and Washington D.C., utilizing their own state tests rather than the Nation’s Report Card.

The report includes several caveats regarding the data set, as some states were excluded from the analysis for specific reasons:

• Illinois and Kansas were excluded because their state assessments had changed recently.
• New York and Colorado were excluded because test opt-out rates were too high.
• Other states were omitted if they failed to publish district-level data with sufficient detail.

By identifying that the decline began in 2013, the research suggests that the factors driving the learning recession are systemic and predate the disruptions caused by the pandemic.