Lebanon on the Brink: Will Israel Unleash a Devastating ‘Scorched Earth’ Campaign

In northern Israel and southern Lebanon, where the sound of rockets swells and the sky burns with the flash of explosions, the region stands on the brink of an abyss from which an anxious world warns of an all-out and costly war.

The military dynamic between Israel and Hezbollah that began years ago is taking a more complicated and dangerous turn. As each side seeks to impose its power and position, the question is whether the conflict will lead to all-out war or a diplomatic solution that would end decades of conflict and tension.

Israel launched airstrikes on Hezbollah targets on Monday, killing hundreds of people, according to Lebanese authorities.

Growth in the interests of diplomacy

In his strategy for dealing with the Northern Front, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu relied on the policy of “escalation to reduce escalation”, a strategy aimed at imposing a diplomatic solution by intensifying airstrikes on Hezbollah positions and directly targeting its leaders.

Netanyahu said in a statement on Monday that the Israeli army was “changing the security balance” in northern Israel.

“I promised that we would change the security balance, the balance of power to the North, and that’s exactly what we’re doing,” Netanyahu added from an air force trench at the Defense Ministry, according to a statement issued by his office. He added that “Israel does not wait for the threat, but waits for it.”

In this context, CNN’s international security correspondent Nick Patton Walsh said, “So-called peace wars rarely succeed, and are often optional, as is the case with the recent Israeli escalation.”

Precision Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah positions have been a key tool in this escalation. According to Walsh, Israel was able to cause significant damage to the party’s infrastructure and leadership activities.

Israeli operations in Lebanon intensified on Monday

This approach is based on the assumption that the group, which is tired of the Syrian war and has lost some of its military power, will not be able to respond with the force it has shown in the past.

However, military analysis shows that Hezbollah may resort to increasing missile strikes as a last resort, which could further complicate the situation and trigger widespread explosions in the region.

The Israeli vision for the future may rest on the assumption that continued pressure will weaken the party in the long run, but this assumption remains fraught with risk, as Walsh believes in an analysis published on the matter. CNN website .

Israel’s Approach: Political or Military Goals?

In an interview with Al-Hura TV, former Israeli ambassador to Washington Danny Aylon explained that “Israel’s mission is to distinguish between Hezbollah fighters and Lebanese civilians to save lives.”

He said Hezbollah “uses civilians as human shields, hiding their weapons and missiles in residential homes.”

“We have warned Lebanese civilians to evacuate areas where we believe Hezbollah has weapons depots,” he added.

Israel carried out airstrikes on hundreds of Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley in the east of the country and northern areas close to Syria, in the largest wave of strikes targeting the group.

Israel has called on the Lebanese to evacuate areas where it says the group has stockpiled its weapons.

Aylon explains the Israeli position that seeks to justify airstrikes that often kill civilians. He said that Hezbollah is “ultimately responsible for civilian deaths, not the Israeli army,” because Hezbollah “hides weapons in civilian homes.”

Ayalon explained that the Israeli government “waited 11 months” since last October before starting to implement the increase, and that Hezbollah “launched a cowardly attack,” as he described it.

American location

On the other side of the conflict, the United States is stepping up efforts to calm down. Roberts Wood, deputy U.S. representative to the United Nations, said in an interview with Al-Hura that “the American goal is to find a diplomatic solution that allows Israelis and Lebanese to return safely to their homes.”

According to Wood, many US administration officials are working to calm the situation in the region through talks with both sides.

Wood added that the United States sees a diplomatic solution as a way out of the escalating crisis, as he noted that there are “discussions about what’s happening in Lebanon” and that the main goal is to “prevent the war from escalating. On a larger scale.”

A senior US State Department official said on Monday that the US would discuss “specific ideas” with allies and partners to prevent the spread of the war.

Israeli officials say a recent increase in airstrikes targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon is aimed at forcing the Iran-backed group to agree to a political solution.

But the official, who asked not to be named, said in a statement to reporters in New York that President Joe Biden’s administration is “focused on reducing tensions … and breaking the cycle of strikes and counterstrikes.”

“I cannot recall, at least in recent memory, a period where escalation or intensification led to a fundamental peace and significant stabilization of the situation,” he said.

Victims and Conflict Responses in Lebanon

On the Lebanese side, authorities announced that more than 490 people, including women and children, were killed as a result of Israeli operations in Lebanon on Monday. These numbers show a huge human toll, which brings to mind the 2006 war.

Thousands of Lebanese began fleeing south to Beirut and northern cities to escape the mounting devastation.

The Israeli operation came two days after Hezbollah’s deepest attack since October 8, as it targeted the Ramat David air base and a complex of the Rafael Military Industries Company, using a new type of missile called the “Fadi 1” and the “Fadi 1″ in its attack. . 2”.

The displacement is believed to be the largest since the 2006 war and reflects fears that the current conflict could escalate into an all-out war.

Lebanese were displaced from the south to the north due to the intensity of Israeli attacks, directed weapons and increased risk.

The Israeli army, which has carried out more than 1,600 airstrikes against Hezbollah targets, claims it has succeeded in destroying several weapons and missile sites hidden in civilian homes.

Israeli military spokesman, Daniel Hagari, said the army is “ready to launch a ground attack if necessary,” indicating the seriousness of the current operation.

But the strikes could prompt a response from Hezbollah, which has an estimated 150,000 missiles and has already fired hundreds of missiles into northern Israel.

Hezbollah’s missiles vary between short and long range and have capabilities that enable them to accurately target both military and civilian targets.

In this tense context, UN peacekeepers suspended their patrols in southern Lebanon, considering that the situation had become extremely dangerous due to the level of exchange of fire.

The UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, expressed his “deep concern” at the escalation of violence, calling for calm and a diplomatic solution.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said on Monday that tensions between Israel and the Hezbollah group in Lebanon are close to all-out war.

Speaking to reporters, Borrell added, “If this situation isn’t war, I don’t know what you would call it.”

The British Foreign Secretary said: “I am deeply concerned by the missile and airstrikes in Lebanon and Israel and the resulting civilian casualties.”

He added, according to Reuters, “I reiterate my call to both sides for an immediate ceasefire, which I will emphasize tonight when I meet G7 ministers.”

Israel Says It Targeted Hezbollah Sites Who Pays?

By far, civilians are paying the highest price in this ongoing conflict. As Israel and Hezbollah exchange attacks, hundreds of innocent people are killed and thousands are displaced from their homes.

Although both sides try to justify their actions in terms of self-defense, the reality shows a more complex picture, as it becomes difficult to distinguish between military personnel and civilians.

The questions that now arise are: Is there any real hope for a diplomatic solution? Can America and the United Nations succeed in stopping the tension?

History indicates that Hezbollah, despite receiving major blows, is able to rebuild itself and come back with greater strength. On the other hand, it appears that Israel will not hesitate to continue its military operations unless a political agreement is reached that ends the group’s threats.

The future is uncertain, and tensions may rise in the region. While the international community is trying to find a solution, both sides are in a difficult situation as neither of them seems ready to compromise.

Unless a political solution is reached that satisfies all parties, the threat of war will continue to loom.