Luanda Ablaze: Can the DRC Escape the Cycle of Violence and Find Lasting Peace

The ceasefire imposed by Luanda lasted only as long as a flash in the pan. That’s the least we can say. Indeed, fighting has resumed in the east of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) between pro-government armed groups also known as Patriots and the Kigali-backed M23 rebels. The resumption of fighting, according to several sources, would be at the initiative of the frontlines against the government of Kinshasa, which is trying to control a very rich territory in terms of minerals in North Kivu, the Walikale area, and this means taking the city south of Pinga, an important army base the Congo and its allies where there is a strategic airfield.

While waiting to return to the results of this new case of violence in the DRC, the least we can say is that it has, to some extent, undermined the diplomatic efforts of the Angolan President, Joao Lourenço, with the aim of calming tensions with Rwanda.

The resumption of fighting in the middle of negotiations is proof that Congolese and Rwandans are negotiating with a dagger in the back

In fact, not later than last October 19, the Angolan mediator had a telephone conversation with the two heads of state in opposition, following the fifth ministerial meeting that took place in Luanda on October 12, 2024 and which left a calm impression. And at this moment when Angola had to submit to the negotiators of both sides, a concept of operations (Conops), named after this strategic document that takes into account the concerns of the two belligerents, the fighting resumed. We can therefore question the sincerity of the exchanges between the main characters. The resumption of fighting in the middle of the negotiations is proof that the Congolese and Rwandans are negotiating with a dagger in the back. We know, in fact, that the outcome of negotiations is often determined by the balance of power on the ground. In such a situation, the rebels in Kigali’s pay would score many points by advancing almost unopposed against the Congolese army that seems to have slowed down or is simply no match for a determined opponent ok

But whatever the motives and objectives of this new offensive by the M23 rebels, it has serious consequences for the civilian populations. Because the very violent fighting caused massive displacements of populations. While around ten civilians were killed, hundreds of children, mainly women and children, flocked, according to some sources, to the town of Pinga in the pouring rain. We are therefore not far from the humanitarian drama at a time when the international community, somewhat stunned by this protracted conflict, has its eyes turned towards the other hot spot on the planet, the Gaza Strip and Lebanon where Israel conducts violent military operations. At a political level, a balance of power that is clearly unfavorable to pro-government fighters cannot fail to raise some questions, the main one of which is the loyalty of the soldiers to the regime of President Félix Tshisekedi.

The DRC has the right to expect the international community to increase the pressure on the Paul Kagame regime

Beyond this question about the loyalty of the army, doubts also arise about President Tshisekedi’s ability to face the cancer that is eating away at the east of his country and which, with this new development, is threatening to enter a stage of metastasis. All these questions, at the moment, without answers, should push the Kinshasa regime to swallow its pride and come down from its pedestal to give every opportunity to the discussions underway in Luanda. From a strategic point of view, this may even be worth its weight in gold to the extent that these negotiations may allow Kinshasa to gain time to reorganize its army. So it is no longer a question of political choice but more a question of survival. But the question we can ask ourselves is the following: can Félix Tshisekedi have this courage on his own if he is not forced to do so by his political base and therefore by the populations? We can doubt it and because of this we have the right to hope from the living forces of the Congo nation, a patriotic surge different from what they have shown so far and which included demonstrations organized towards the Western chancellors and United Nations organizations to deny their inadequacy in the face of the security crisis that is shaking the country. These active forces must be more sensitive to the suffering of their countrymen in the painful region of North Kivu and demand from political power a more favorable attitude towards the negotiations which, at the moment, constitute the only way out of hell this is forced upon the innocent. DRC populations.

Having said that, the DRC has the right to expect the international community, and by virtue of the rules governing world progress, to increase the pressure on the Paul Kagame regime so that it gives up its acts of destabilization in his neighbor’s place. Rwanda itself must understand that the policy of war towards its neighbors cannot flourish indefinitely. Because the rebellions it fuels will always end, like all beasts, by devouring their offspring.

“The country”