Lula Leads Flávio Bolsonaro in São Paulo in 2026 Election, per ambito.com

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured 46.58% of the vote in the capital of São Paulo during the October 2026 Brazilian general elections, according to data reported by ambito.com. That total marks a narrow margin over Flávio Bolsonaro, who reached 42.13% in the city, leaving a gap of approximately 4.5 percentage points between the two candidates.

The São Paulo Vote Share and Territorial Shift

The current race shows a significantly tighter contest in Brazil’s most populous city than the previous presidential election in 2022. During the first round of the 2022 contest, the leader of the Partido dos Trabajadores (PT) captured 47.5% of valid votes in São Paulo, while Jair Bolsonaro obtained 38%, creating a wider gap of 9.5 percentage points, ambito.com reported. In the territorial breakdown of the city, Lula won 35 electoral zones in the October 2026 vote compared to 22 zones for Flávio Bolsonaro. Four years prior, Lula had finished first in 40 electoral districts while Jair Bolsonaro won 17, according to figures covered by ambito.com and minutouno.com. In the northern zone, Flávio Bolsonaro moved ahead in the electoral districts of Lauzane Paulista and Jaçanã. In the eastern part of the city, he managed to reverse the results in Cangaíba, Ponte Rasa, and Sapopemba. Meanwhile, Pinheiros and Perdizes favored Lula by wide majorities during both the 2022 and 2026 elections.

Flávio Bolsonaro Leads Lula in First Round

National results presented a different picture of the overall electorate. c5n.com reported that opposition candidate Flávio Bolsonaro of the Partido Liberal (PL) won the presidential first round with 47.08% of valid votes, accumulating over 55.5 million ballots and surpassing Lula by approximately three million votes. c5n.com noted that Lula da Silva finished the first round with 45.10% of valid votes. With 99% of the voting tally sheets counted by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), the Partido Liberal candidate broke all previous projections and consolidated a decisive mathematical advantage. The outcome defied final pre-election polling from Datafolha, which had projected Lula leading the first round with 42% against 38% for the representative of the bolsonarismo movement, as detailed by c5n.com. Other presidential contenders included Augusto Cury with 2.90%, Renan Santos with 2.26%, Ronaldo Caiado with 2.20%, and Romeu Zema with 0.28%, according to c5n.com figures.

Congressional Gains for the Partido Liberal

The election, which was held alongside the presidential first round, renewed all 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 54 of the 81 Senate seats. ambito.com reported that the PL increased its Senate footprint from 15 to 28 seats, marking the strongest result for any party since the return of democracy in Brazil in 1985. In the Chamber of Deputies, projections assigned the party 121 of the 513 available seats, up from 98. When combined with other centroderecha blocs, conservative and right-of-centre forces are projected to control roughly 250 seats in the lower house and over 30 seats in the Senate, creating a powerful legislative bloc for the next congressional term, according to ambito.com data.

Presidential Election Moves to Second Round Runoff

Because no presidential candidate reached the constitutional threshold of 50% plus one of the valid votes required for an outright victory in the first round, the election moves forward to a decisive second-round runoff. Roughly 159 million eligible voters were enabled to choose in the initial contest, which also decided governorships across 27 states and renewed regional assemblies alongside federal legislators, as outlined by c5n.com.