Macron-Starmer Deal: UK Small Boats Plan Explained
Small Boats and Big Numbers: why the UK’s New Migration Pilot Scheme Looks Limited
Table of Contents
The UK’s new pilot scheme to return migrants to France,agreed upon between Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer,has been presented as a step towards tackling illegal immigration. Though, a closer look at the numbers reveals the scheme’s limited scope when compared to other forms of immigration and the overall scale of net migration to the UK.
Visa Overstays dwarf Channel crossings
The focus on small boat crossings often overshadows other significant contributors to illegal immigration. The last published figures showed nearly 100,000 visa overstayers – more than double the 45,755 people who arrived in the UK via small boats in 2022. This highlights a critical area of illegal migration that the current pilot scheme, despite being discussed at the summit between Sunak and Starmer, isn’t directly addressing.[Flourish chart: https://news.sky.com/story/visualisation/24179697?860800]
A Drop in the Ocean of Net Migration
Even considering all forms of illegal migration, the numbers remain small when viewed against the backdrop of overall net migration. While net migration has recently fallen, it remains a significant figure. Previous governments failed to meet their pledge to reduce net migration to the “tens of thousands.”
Between 2023 and 2024, net migration halved from 860,000 to 431,000. This reduction is largely attributed to changes in rules regarding workers and students bringing dependants, implemented under the current government.
Net migration is calculated by subtracting the number of people leaving the UK from those arriving.In the last year, 948,000 people arrived, while 517,000 departed.
The Pilot Scheme’s Limited Impact
The reported starting point of the pilot scheme – 50 people per week being returned to france, and an equivalent number received - equates to approximately 2,600 people moving in either direction annually. This represents just 0.5% of the total number of people leaving the UK each year, and a mere 0.27% of those arriving.
[Flourish chart: https://news.sky.com/story/visualisation/24178243?860800]
Visually, when plotted against overall migration figures, the impact of the pilot scheme is minimal - appearing almost negligible.
Political Motivations and Future observations
While the numbers are small, Sir Keir Starmer will likely hope that demonstrating visible action on immigration will yield a political benefit, particularly as Nigel Farage’s Reform party gains traction in the polls.Weather this limited scheme can act as a deterrent, or if scaling it up would be more effective, remains to be seen. The coming months will be crucial in observing the scheme’s impact and determining its potential for influencing broader migration patterns.
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