Manitoba Business Support & Team Canada Approach | Economic Growth
Manitoba is earning recognition for its efforts to reduce internal trade barriers within Canada, even as the province’s businesses grapple with broader economic headwinds and labour shortages. The Manitoba government received an A- grade in the Canadian Federation of Independent Business’s (CFIB) 2025 State of Internal Trade Report Card, announced on . This places Manitoba among the top three jurisdictions in the country, alongside Ontario and Nova Scotia, for advancing mutual recognition and improving interprovincial trade.
Business, Mining, Trade and Job Creation Minister Jamie Moses stated that the goal is to ensure businesses “should not face barriers just because they cross a provincial border.” The province has already identified British Columbia, Ontario, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia as reciprocal provinces under the Fair Trade in Canada (Internal Trade Mutual Recognition) Act, and continues to pursue agreements with other jurisdictions.
The positive assessment of Manitoba’s internal trade reforms arrives at a time of broader economic uncertainty. While the CFIB report highlights progress on reducing barriers *within* Canada, other economic indicators suggest a more challenging environment for businesses overall. TD Economics, in a report published on , forecasts that Canada will experience its weakest economic growth (excluding pandemic years) since 2015 in 2026. The report specifically notes a projected slowdown in public sector output growth in Prince Edward Island, which accounts for roughly one-third of that province’s GDP, a trend that could foreshadow similar pressures in other provinces.
The TD Economics forecast also points to a potential divergence in economic performance between commodity-producing provinces and those more reliant on trade with the United States. While commodity producers are expected to outperform, their margin of outperformance is predicted to shrink due to moderating commodity prices, particularly crude oil. Provinces geared towards U.S. Trade, such as Ontario, Manitoba, Quebec, and New Brunswick, are expected to see upgrades to their 2026 growth forecasts, benefiting from a less damaging trade environment than initially feared. However, the report cautions that limited access to recent trade data makes it difficult to fully assess the recovery trend following a trade shock in the second quarter of 2025.
Manitoba’s economic development strategy, outlined on EngageMB, emphasizes the importance of a proactive plan in the face of ongoing economic uncertainty driven by tariffs. The province’s focus on reducing internal trade barriers aligns with this strategy, aiming to create a more favorable environment for Manitoba businesses to compete nationally.
However, the benefits of improved internal trade may be partially offset by ongoing challenges in the labour market. Reports indicate that businesses, particularly in rural areas, are struggling to fill job vacancies. A recent report from CBC News highlights concerns that proposed changes to immigration policies could exacerbate these labour shortages. The specific nature of these proposed changes was not detailed in the available sources, but the concern underscores the delicate balance between attracting skilled workers and maintaining economic competitiveness.
The TD Economics report also notes resilience in job markets across most provinces, with unemployment rates peaking around the first quarter of 2026 before gradually declining. However, downside surprises in unemployment rates have been observed in Ontario, Alberta, Quebec, New Brunswick, and Prince Edward Island, suggesting that labour market conditions remain volatile. This volatility could impact Manitoba as well, despite the province’s efforts to improve its economic climate.
the Canadian housing market is expected to continue its gradual improvement, but price growth is likely to be significantly slower in Ontario and, to a lesser extent, British Columbia, due to supply and demand imbalances. This regional disparity in housing market performance could have broader economic implications, affecting consumer spending and investment patterns across the country.
Economic growth, as defined by Investopedia, is the increase in the production of goods and services over a specific period, typically measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or Gross National Product (GNP). The TD Economics forecast suggests a period of slower GDP growth for Canada in 2026, highlighting the need for provinces like Manitoba to focus on strategies that can bolster economic activity and mitigate the impact of external factors. The province’s commitment to reducing internal trade barriers represents one such strategy, but its effectiveness will depend on a range of other economic conditions and policy decisions.
The A- grade from the CFIB provides a positive signal regarding Manitoba’s efforts to foster a more integrated Canadian economy. However, the broader economic context suggests that businesses in the province will continue to face challenges in the coming year, requiring a multifaceted approach to support growth and address labour market pressures.