Marcel Ciolacu and George Simion, on the first places in the race for the second presidential round

A survey carried out by Verifield, at the request of the Union Save Romania (USR), shows that if the presidential elections were held next Sunday, Marcel Ciolacu (PSD) and George Simion (AUR) would be the candidates and would join the second round.

The survey was conducted between November 1-6, 2024 and analyzes voting intentions from three perspectives: the total sample, the votes cast and the votes cast by those who actually intend to vote, estimated at 65.4 % of the sample.

In all three scenarios analysed, Marcel Ciolacu is ahead, with an advantage over George Simion, leader of the Union of Romanians (AUR).

Detailed Verifield survey results

Option 1. Total sample

According to the data from the whole sample, Marcel Ciolacu (PSD) leads with 20.6%, followed by George Simion (AUR) with 17.1%. The USR candidate, Elena Lasconi, is in third place with 12.4%, and Mircea Geoană, an independent candidate, gets 11.1%. Nicolae Ciucă, the PNL candidate, is in fifth place with only 7.4%.

• Marcel Ciolacu (PSD) – 20.6%
• George Simion (GOLD) – 17,1%
• Elena Lasconi (USR) – 12.4%
• Mircea Geoană (independent) – 11.1%
• Nicolae Ciucă (PNL) – 7.4%
• Călin Georgescu (independent) – 3.9%
• Hunor Kelemen (UDMR) – 3.7%
• Cristian Diaconescu (independent) – 3.7%
• Ana Birchall (independent) – 1.3%
• Ludovic Orban (Forta Dreptei) – 1%
• Cristian Terheș (PNCR) – 0.6%
• Silviu Predoiu (National Action Alliance Party) – 0.4%
• Sebastian Popescu (New Romanian Party) – 0.3%
• Alexandra Păcuraru (Alternate for National Dignity) – 0.2%
• Another 0.1%

Option 2: Votes cast

From the total number of votes cast, Marcel Ciolacu increases to 24.6%, while George Simion reaches 20.4%. Elena Lasconi gets a score of 14.9%, and Mircea Geoană rises to 13.2%. In this scenario, Nicolae Ciuca reaches 8.8%.

• Marcel Ciolacu (PSD) – 24.6%
• George Simion (GOLD) – 20,4%
• Elena Lasconi (USR) – 14.9%
• Mircea Geoană (independent) – 13.2%
• Nicolae Ciucă (PNL) – 8.8%
• Călin Georgescu (independent) – 4.7%
• Cristian Diaconescu (independent) – 4.4%
• Hunor Kelemen (UDMR) – 2.9%
• Ana Birchall (independent) – 1.5%
• Ludovic Orban (Forta Dreptei) – 1.2%
• Cristian Terheș (PNCR) – 0.8%
• Silviu Predoiu (National Action Alliance Party) – 0.4%
• Sebastian Popescu (New Romanian Party) – 0.3%
• Alexandra Păcuraru (Alternate for National Dignity) – 0.2%
• Other – 0.1%

3. Votes cast by those who say they are going to vote (65.4% of the sample)

In the last scenario, considering the voting intention of only those who declare that they will go to the polls (65.4% of the sample), Marcel Ciolacu reaches 25.9%, and George Simeon to 21.2%, consolidating their leading positions in this race. Lasconi gets 15.7%, and Geoană continues on 13.2%, followed by Nicolae Ciucă with 8.5%.

• Marcel Ciolacu (PSD) – 25.9%
• George Simion (GOLD) – 21.2%
• Elena Lasconi (USR) – 15.7%
• Mircea Geoană (independent) – 13.2%
• Nicolae Ciucă (PNL) – 8.5%
• Călin Georgescu (independent) – 4.6%
• Cristian Diaconescu (independent) – 4.4%
• Hunor Kelemen (UDMR) – 2.9%
• Ana Birchall (independent) – 1.2%
• Ludovic Orban (Forta Dreptei) – 1.1%
• Silviu Predoiu (National Action Alliance Party) – 0.6%
• Cristian Terheș (PNCR) – 0.3%
• Alexandra Păcuraru (Alternate for National Dignity) – 0.3%
• Other – 0.1%

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