Market Mayhem: New York Stock Exchange Plunges into Chaos as ‘Ambiguous’ Employment Report Sparks Severe Volatility
New York Stock Market Starts in Mixed Tide Amid ‘Ambiguous’ Employment Report
The New York stock market started off mixed. Although the increase in non-farm payrolls in August was lower than expected, the investment sentiment worsened, but the unemployment rate and wage increase were stable, and the analysis that the situation is better than the ’employment shock’ in July is gaining strength.
As of 9:45 p.m. on the 6th (local time), the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a collection of blue chips on the New York Stock Exchange, is recording 48,839.92, up 0.32% from the previous trading day.
The S&P 500 index, a large-cap benchmark, is up 0.07% at 5,507.51, while the Nasdaq index, which is heavy on technology stocks, is down 0.27% at 17,081.46. The S&P 500 is continuing to fluctuate. The Russell 2000 index, which is heavy on small-cap stocks, is up 0.11%.
The slowdown in nonfarm growth is negative
There were growing concerns that the employment slowdown was occurring faster than expected, as the U.S. nonfarm payrolls gain in August was lower than expected and the June-July gain was revised down by 86,000 jobs.
According to the U.S. Labor Department, nonfarm payrolls increased by 142,000 in August from the previous month. This figure is lower than the 161,000 expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. It is also a significant decrease from the average increase of 202,000 over the past 12 months.
Wage increases and unemployment rate slowdown are positive
However, there were quite a few positive factors. The unemployment rate also fell to 4.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from July (4.3%). It fell for the first time in five months. It was in line with market expectations (4.2%).
Average hourly wages rose 0.4% from the previous month, exceeding the 0.3% Wall Street estimate. This shows that workers still have bargaining power and are seeking wage increases despite the supply shortage.
Fed’s September ‘big cut’ possibility drops again to 39%
Even when the employment report came out, the outlook that the Fed could make a ‘big cut (50bp)’ at the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting to prevent the rapid employment slowdown from continuing grew stronger.
But the situation has reversed again as the general assessment has strengthened that employment has not slowed enough to warrant a big cut in September. The possibility of a big cut in September has fallen again to 39%.
