Market on High Alert: SET50 Index Futures Teeter as Investors Await Crucial Fed Meeting Decision

Medium Term Trend

In the medium term, S50U24 is expected to swing up. In the short term, it is positive after standing above the support level of 885. Evaluate the support level at 893/885/878/867 and resistance at 903/912/920/930. If it can stand above 893, it may turn up to the resistance at 903/912. If it cannot stand above 893, it may turn down to the 885/878 support.

Medium Term Strategy (Week)

Recommend opening a long contract S50U24 at 893 and closing the position at the resistance level 903/912 with a stop loss point at 888.

SET50 Short-Term Futures Trend (Intraday)

Last Friday, S50U24 came up, opening immediately positive at 902.9, then bouncing back up to a high of 905.4, alternately slowing to a low of 897.3 and closing at 899.7, with S50U24 adding stronger than the r index, resulting in a Basis between S50U24 and SET50 to the level of -0.11 points.

Evaluate the contract: S50U24 may vary.

Short Term Strategy (Intraday)

It is recommended to open a long contract S50U24 at the support level of 897 and close the position at the resistance level of 902/910 with a stop loss point of 892.

For those who opened a Long S50U24 contract at 897.3 last Friday, it is recommended to close the position at the 902/910 resistance level with a stop loss point of 892.

Important Factors

Factors Affecting SET50

Last Friday, the Dow Jones closed down 297 points (+0.72%), closing at 41,393 points from investors who expected the Fed to cut interest rates by 0.5%. US consumer confidence rose in September to 69.0, above market expectations of 68.3 and the highest since May.

Regarding the direction of WTI oil prices in October, it closed 0.32 US dollars/barrel (-0.5%) to 68.65 US dollars/barrel. From the production of crude oil in the Gulf of Mexico in the United States, production has started to resume again. Having previously had to halt some production due to the impact of Hurricane Francine. Including the weekly report of US oil and gas drilling rigs increasing by 8 rigs to 590 rigs, this is the largest weekly increase since 15 September 2023, which was considered a negative factor for the direction of oil prices.

In the direction of the US dollar/baht, it is strengthening. Most recently it was 33.21 baht / US dollar.

Factors to Monitor in the Short Term

Tomorrow night, follow US retail sales for August. The market expects -0.2% MoM. Additionally, there are important factors to follow, including the outcome of the Fed meeting on September 18th and interest rates by the end of the year, which was 1.0% at 30%, down from 33% the previous day.