Market on High Alert: US Stock Futures Teeter as August PCE Data Looms
(Original title: U.S. stock market outlook | The three major stock index futures have mixed gains and losses, and the U.S. August PCE data is coming tonight)
1. Before the U.S. stock market opened on Friday, September 27, the three major U.S. stock index futures were mixed. As of press time, Dow futures were up 0.02%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.04%, and Nasdaq futures were down 0.12%.
2. As of press time, the German DAX index rose 0.93%, the British FTSE 100 index fell 0.46%, the French CAC 40 index rose 0.24%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.34%.
3. As of press time, WTI crude oil rose 0.38% to US$67.93 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose 0.31% to US$71.31 per barrel.
market news
US August PCE data is coming tonight.At 20:30 Beijing time on Friday, the US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price data for August will be released. The survey shows that the U.S. PCE price index is expected to increase by 0.1% monthly in August, and the core PCE price index is expected to increase by 0.2% monthly. The survey also showed that the U.S. PCE price index in August is expected to increase at an annual rate of 2.3%, and the core PCE price index is expected to increase at an annual rate of 2.7%. The core PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is the most important economic data this week and may provide more clues about the extent of a rate cut in November. The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark policy rate by 50 basis points last week to 4.75%-5.00%. Traders see a 51% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut in November. Analysts said that if the U.S. core PCE inflation measure is stronger than expected, it may pour cold water on the Fed’s bets on a sharp interest rate cut in November; on the other hand, if the PCE data is lower than expected, it may make people believe that the Fed will be more dovish. .
Will Shigeru Ishiba’s unexpected election as president of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party clear the way for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates?On September 27, Shigeru Ishiba, the former secretary-general of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party, won the majority of votes in the second round of the Liberal Democratic Party’s presidential election and was elected as the new president of the Liberal Democratic Party. As usual, the new Liberal Democratic Party president Shigeru Ishiba will be nominated by the National Assembly on October 1 to take over as prime minister. Shigeru Ishiba stressed on Friday that Japan’s economy must shake off deflation and vowed to take steps to raise wages, suggesting his near-term focus will be on keeping economic activity on a sustained recovery track. After the election results were announced, the yen rose sharply, with its exchange rate against the U.S. dollar once soaring to 142.89, Japanese bond futures fell, and Nikkei 225 index futures fell. Analysts said the Bank of Japan is expected to continue raising interest rates.
Fed Governor Cook: “wholeheartedly” supports a 50 basis point interest rate cut.Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said she “wholeheartedly” supports the Fed’s 50 basis point rate cut last week, citing a slowing job market and easing inflation. Cook did not specify how much monetary easing will be needed in the short term, but said that when considering the policy path, he will carefully observe the upcoming economic data and the balance of risks. “This decision reflects growing confidence that, with appropriate adjustments to our policy stance, a stable labor market can be achieved against the backdrop of moderate economic growth,” she said in a speech delivered Thursday at Ohio State University. On September 18, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5%.
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts triggered a wave of home buying and a surge in demand for U.S. mortgage loans.U.S. online real estate brokerage Redfin (RDFN.US) reported on Thursday that the Federal Reserve’s monetary easing policies triggered a wave of home buying, causing the number of mortgage rate locks on September 23 to surge 68% from a month ago. Other indicators also show demand is improving. According to the report, a monthly increase of more than 10% in mortgage purchase applications may drive higher home sales in the coming weeks. Additionally, Redfin’s homebuyer demand index jumped to its highest level since May in the week ended September 22. Other factors drawing buyers back include falling median monthly payments and an increase in new listings. Still, mortgage rates and housing costs had fallen sharply for weeks before the Federal Reserve began its first rate-cutting cycle in four years last week.
The founder of the Black Swan Fund sounds the alarm: The “Goldilocks” of U.S. stocks is in danger of ending suddenly.Mark Spitznagel, founder and chief investment officer of black swan fund Universa Investments, said that with the stock market hitting record highs and traders becoming more confident about a soft landing for the economy, the stock market seemed to be in a “Goldilocks zone,” but in Thursday said investors should be wary of second-order effects, such as an economic slowdown that could lead to a sudden market collapse even if the Fed cuts interest rates. Spitznagel predicts a “crash” in global markets before the end of the year, likely driven by an economic slowdown. The S&P 500 hit 42 all-time highs in 2024, buoyed by corporate earnings resilience, the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle and expectations that the U.S. economy will be able to avoid recession. But Spitznagel believes the Fed’s lower borrowing costs will make investors worry and think more about stock price trends next year.
individual stock news
The U.S. middle class’s favorite store, Costco (COST.US), had better-than-expected Q4 profits, but its revenue fell short of expectations, with same-store sales growing 5.4%.Costco reported fiscal fourth-quarter profit that topped market expectations, suggesting consumer spending remains strong despite persistent cost pressures. The financial report shows that in the fourth fiscal quarter of fiscal year 2024 that ended on September 1, Costco’s total revenue was US$79.697 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1%, which was lower than the average analyst estimate of US$79.96 billion. Among them, net sales were US$78.185 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1%; membership fees were US$1.512 billion, basically the same as the same period last year. Q4 net profit was US$2.354 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9%; diluted earnings per share was US$5.29, better than analysts’ average estimate of US$5.07. Q4 same-store sales grew 5.4%, higher than analysts’ average forecast of 4.27% growth. U.S. same-store sales increased by 5.3%; e-commerce sales increased by nearly 19%.
AMD (AMD.US) reaches a milestone moment! Oracle (ORCL.US) joins hands with MI300X to build a supercomputing cluster.Oracle, the technology giant that is world-famous for its cloud computing services and database software, recently selected the AMD Instinct MI300X AI accelerator equipped with the ROCm open software ecosystem to provide the core artificial intelligence computing hardware support for Oracle’s latest OCI computing super cluster instance. Joining hands with Oracle means that AMD, which currently holds less than 10% of the data center AI GPU market share, is gradually integrating into the circle of global cloud computing giants and is expected to continue to seize Nvidia’s share of the AI GPU market. Cloud giant Oracle selected AMD Instinct MI300X AI accelerator for its latest OCI supercomputing cluster, which shows that AMD is continuously increasing its influence in the AI GPU market. It is crucial for AMD to obtain real-money recognition from cloud giant Oracle. important.
It is rumored that Intel (INTC.US) and the United States will finalize US$8.5 billion in chip financing before the end of the year.Negotiations are in an advanced stage, but there is no guarantee they will be completed by the end of the year. According to reports, any acquisition of all or part of Intel’s shares may derail negotiations.
Chinese concept stocks continued their gains, and Energy Chain Smart Electronics (NAAS.US) continued to rise by more than 10%.Nenglian smart disk rose 16%, Bilibili, Pinduoduo, and JD.com rose more than 2%, and Alibaba rose less than 1%.
Important economic data and event forecasts
20:30 Beijing time: U.S. personal spending monthly rate in August (%), U.S. PCE price index annual rate in August (%), U.S. wholesale inventory monthly rate initial value in August (%).
22:00 Beijing time: The final value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in the United States in September.
01:00 am Beijing time the next day: The total number of drilling rigs in the United States (mouth) in the week ending September 27.
21:30 Beijing time: The 2025 FOMC voting committee, Boston Fed President Collins and Fed Governor Coogler delivered speeches.
01:15 a.m. Beijing time the next day: Fed Governor Bowman participated in a discussion at the Alabama Bankers Association bank CEO meeting.