Measuring How Stressed Rocks ‘Sigh’ Before Breaking to Predict Geohazards

Scientists have identified a measurable chemical signal released by rocks under stress that could provide early warning of impending geological failures such as landslides, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions. This “sigh” comes in the form of naturally occurring nuclides — atoms defined by their proton and neutron count — which are emitted as rocks deform before breaking.

The discovery, published April 9 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, establishes a quantitative link between fluctuations in nuclide emissions and progressive structural changes in rock that lead to critical failure. Researchers from institutions in China and the United States developed a model that connects these geochemical signals to the physical state of stressed rock, offering a potential tool for predicting geohazards.

Rong Mao, a postdoctoral research associate at the New Jersey Institute of Technology’s Center for Natural Resources and co-first author of the study, emphasized the significance of the findings. “We explicitly link these structural changes to measurable features of nuclide signals,” Mao said. “To our knowledge, this is the first study to establish a quantitative theory for diagnosing rock rupture using naturally occurring nuclide signals.”

The research team, led by Xin Luo of Hong Kong University and Yifeng Chen of Wuhan University in China, and Michael Manga of the University of California, Berkeley in the United States, analyzed how rocks release nuclides such as radon and helium during deformation. While scientists have studied these emissions for over 50 years, previous efforts failed to consistently correlate nuclide release with the timing of rock breakage.

By creating a predictive model that ties nuclide signal fluctuations to measurable changes in rock structure, the team addressed this long-standing challenge. The approach allows experts to interpret subtle geochemical warnings as indicators of increasing stress and proximity to failure, potentially improving hazard preparedness in vulnerable regions.

When rocks deform and eventually fracture, they can trigger cascading hazards including landslides, avalanches, and intensified damage from seismic or volcanic activity. The new findings suggest that monitoring nuclide emissions could serve as a non-invasive method for assessing rock stability in real time, particularly in areas prone to slope instability or tectonic strain.

The study underscores the value of interdisciplinary research in geophysics and geochemistry, combining field observations, laboratory analysis, and theoretical modeling to transform a long-observed phenomenon into a actionable predictive framework. As the technology and methodology mature, such signals may complement existing geohazard monitoring systems that rely on seismic data, ground deformation, and satellite imagery.