Medicare Advantage Enrollment Growth Slows: 2026 Data

Medicare Advantage enrollment continues to grow, but at a significantly slower pace than in recent years, according to new federal data. As of February 1, 2026, approximately 35.5 million people are enrolled in a Medicare Advantage plan, a roughly 3% increase from the 34.4 million enrolled at the same time in 2025.

This growth represents a marked deceleration compared to the period between 2017 and 2024, when annual enrollment increases ranged from 7% to 10%. The slowdown was particularly noticeable during the most recent annual enrollment window, which ran from October 15 through December 7, with enrollment increasing by only 1%.

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) projects that Medicare Advantage enrollment will fall to 34 million in 2026, down from nearly 35 million this year. This would mark the first decline in enrollment in nearly two decades. Despite this projection, CMS anticipates that enrollment in 2026 will be more robust than current plan projections, suggesting the market will remain relatively stable.

Several factors are likely contributing to this shift. Health insurers have faced shrinking profits in their Medicare Advantage programs over the last two years, as members experience higher-than-expected medical costs and new regulations impact government reimbursement rates. Insurers are cutting back on unprofitable plans and, in some cases, exiting certain markets altogether.

Analysts also point to increasing deductibles and out-of-pocket costs on 2026 Medicare Advantage plans. Insurers have also reduced broker commissions on 15% to 20% of plans, potentially discouraging enrollment in plans that may not be the best fit for beneficiaries.

Despite the projected enrollment decline, seniors will still have a substantial number of plan choices. The average beneficiary will have access to approximately 10 plans in most markets when reviewing options for 2026.

The shift in Medicare Advantage enrollment has implications for both beneficiaries and healthcare providers. For beneficiaries, it means carefully evaluating plan options to ensure they receive adequate coverage at an affordable cost. The availability of a wide range of plans can be beneficial, but also requires more diligent comparison shopping.

For physicians, changes in Medicare Advantage enrollment can affect reimbursement rates, prior authorization requirements, and quality metrics. Understanding these potential impacts is crucial for providing optimal care to Medicare patients. The projected decline in enrollment could also influence patient panel composition, as beneficiaries potentially return to traditional Medicare.

While the CMS projects a decline in enrollment, it also notes that the Medicare market is expected to remain stable overall. The agency has stated that a government shutdown should not impact the October 1 start of the Medicare open enrollment shopping period, ensuring beneficiaries have uninterrupted access to information and plan options.

Currently, Medicare Advantage plans cover approximately 48% of the Medicare population, a decrease from 50% in 2025. The average monthly plan premium across all Medicare Advantage plans is estimated to fall to $14 in 2026, down from $16.40 in 2025. However, the total number of Medicare Advantage plans nationally is expected to decrease slightly, from 5,633 in 2025 to approximately 5,600 in 2026.

The era of consistent growth in Medicare Advantage enrollment may be coming to an end, signaling a potential shift in the dynamics of the Medicare program. While the program remains a popular choice for many seniors, the factors driving the recent slowdown warrant close attention from both policymakers and healthcare stakeholders.