Global Crop Yields Plummet Amidst Heat Waves and Droughts
Heat waves and droughts caused by global warming have significantly reduced global crop yields, leading to a surge in prices. The term ‘heatflation’ has been coined to describe this phenomenon, and climate change has become the biggest risk factor for the global economy.
Droughts Devastate Olive Production in Mediterranean Countries
Mediterranean countries, such as Italy and Spain, are facing severe declines in olive production due to droughts. Puglia, Italy’s largest olive-producing region, has suffered catastrophic damage, while Spain, which produces half of the world’s olive oil, has also experienced crop failures. As a result, olive oil prices have risen by as much as 50%, and supermarkets have seen a sharp increase in theft of olive oil.
“Demand is high, and more customers want olive oil, but unfortunately, the supply is much lower than usual,” said Rafael Alonso Barrau, CEO of an olive oil company.
Droughts in Brazil and Vietnam Impact Orange Juice and Coffee Prices
A severe drought in Brazil, the world’s largest orange exporter, has driven up orange juice prices. Orange juice concentrate futures prices have reached an all-time high, leading some companies to give up on juice production.
“The fruit doesn’t ripen or falls off early, and the quality of the juice is poor,” said Oscar Simioni, an orange farmer.
International coffee bean prices have also been hit hard by the drought in Vietnam and Brazil. Coffee farmers in Vietnam have reported a significant decrease in coffee production due to the drought.
“The whole region has dried up, and the lack of water is severe, resulting in a much lower coffee harvest than last year,” said Doan Van Tang, a coffee farmer.
Climate Change Impacts Global Food Prices
Climate change is having a real impact on global food prices. The future looks more problematic, with the European Central Bank projecting that the heatwave could push annual food prices up by up to 3.2 percentage points over the next decade.
“The average temperature over the next five years will almost certainly be higher than the average temperature over the past five years, and this will continue,” said Carlo Buontempo, Director of the EU Climate Change Service.
This is a figure that could push up overall prices by 1.2 percentage points. Central banks mostly exclude food prices from their core inflation measures because they are too volatile. However, as global warming intensifies, how to reflect food prices when measuring core inflation has emerged as a new challenge for governments around the world.
