The timing could scarcely be more fraught. As Chancellor Friedrich Merz concludes a series of high-stakes meetings in the Gulf States, securing deals worth billions, a diplomatic powder keg is reaching its boiling point some 1,500 kilometers east. Today’s scheduled talks in Oman between US and Iranian officials carry the weight of regional stability – and potentially, the specter of war.
Merz’s trip, ostensibly an economic mission, has unfolded against a backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions. Reports indicate that former US President Donald Trump threatened military action should negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program falter. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, responded with a stark warning of a “regional war” should the US attack. This volatile environment casts a long shadow over Merz’s diplomatic efforts, highlighting the complex strategic dilemma facing Germany.
The Chancellor’s meetings with leaders in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates – all key rivals of Iran – underscore the delicate balancing act. Merz reportedly lauded his counterparts as “impressive personalities” and “very reliable” partners, while addressing human rights concerns “behind closed doors.” This approach, while pragmatic, raises questions about the prioritization of economic interests over fundamental values in German foreign policy.
The crux of the matter lies in Germany’s growing dependence on the Gulf States. Following the disruption of Russian energy supplies, these nations have become indispensable partners, providing crucial energy resources, investment capital, and a market for German technology. Saudi Arabia’s ambitious economic diversification plans, requiring substantial foreign expertise, present a significant opportunity for German businesses. Qatar’s vast gas reserves offer a potential pathway to energy independence. The UAE’s strategic location positions it as a vital hub for trade between Europe and Asia.
However, this reliance comes at a cost. The Gulf States are squarely in the crosshairs of a potential conflict with Iran. The outcome of today’s negotiations in Oman will directly impact Germany’s strategic position. A failure to reach a diplomatic resolution could inadvertently draw Germany into a regional war, through its economic ties, arms exports, and diplomatic alignments.
The situation presents a clear strategic dilemma for Germany. While economic cooperation with the Gulf States is vital, it cannot come at the expense of regional stability and long-term security. A one-sided dependence on authoritarian regimes risks repeating past mistakes, leaving Germany vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.
The argument that energy security justifies any partnership holds limited weight. While securing alternative energy sources is crucial, it cannot be achieved at the cost of compromising fundamental values or exacerbating regional tensions. Similarly, the notion that economic engagement will inevitably lead to political reform in the Gulf States remains largely unproven. Despite decades of Western investment, these nations continue to exhibit limited progress on human rights and democratic governance.
Germany risks sacrificing its foreign policy credibility by prioritizing short-term economic gains over long-term strategic interests. A more nuanced approach is needed, one that balances economic cooperation with a firm commitment to diplomacy, human rights, and regional stability.
Today’s developments will undoubtedly shape the political debate in Germany. The opposition is already preparing to scrutinize the Chancellor’s Gulf policy, particularly the proposed relaxation of arms export restrictions to Saudi Arabia. Critics argue that such a move would send the wrong signal, undermining Germany’s commitment to responsible arms control and potentially fueling further conflict in the region.
The coming weeks will be critical. The Iran negotiations will determine whether diplomacy can prevail or whether the region is plunged into war. If talks fail, Merz’s new Gulf partners will find themselves on the front lines, and Germany will be forced to confront the consequences of its strategic choices. The question remains whether Germany can forge a coherent Middle East strategy that safeguards its economic interests while upholding its values and promoting regional peace.
Today’s Key Appointments:
- Oman: US-Iran negotiations on the nuclear program – a pivotal moment for regional peace.
- Nicosia: Informal meeting of EU environment ministers – discussions on European climate policy.
- Berlin: DIW study on wealth tax, led by Left Party leader Ines Schwerdtner – a debate on tax justice.
The current situation underscores a troubling reality: Germany now imports more oil from Saudi Arabia than from any other country, reaching a record 18.2 million tons in 2025. Simultaneously, German arms exports to the Gulf region totaled 4.3 billion euros. These figures reveal that Merz’s trip wasn’t a spontaneous gesture, but a continuation of a pre-existing strategic realignment. Germany has demonstrably chosen the Gulf States as partners, even if it means courting authoritarian regimes. The irony is stark: the very nations Germany courts as “reliable partners” are on the brink of conflict with Iran. Sometimes, foreign policy isn’t driven by grand visions, but by the pragmatic concerns of securing energy supplies and maintaining robust order books.
