Mexico Surpasses Canada as Top US Trade Partner: 2025 Export Data

Mexico has solidified its position as the United States’ top trading partner, surpassing Canada in December 2025 and for the full year, a shift with significant implications for North American trade dynamics. Data released by the U.S. Census Bureau shows that in 2025, U.S. Exports to Mexico totaled $337.96 billion, representing 15.5% of total American exports, exceeding the $336.518 billion sent to Canada, which accounted for 15.4% of the total.

This marks the first time Mexico has held the top spot on an annual basis, according to Mexico’s Business Coordinating Council. The change isn’t limited to exports; Mexico is also the leading supplier of goods to the U.S., a position it has held since 2023. Combined, bilateral trade between the two countries reached $872.834 billion in 2025, an unprecedented figure representing 15.6% of total U.S. Trade with the world. This surpasses both Canada (12.8%) and China (7.4%).

The shift reflects a broader reconfiguration of global supply chains following the pandemic, increased demand for Mexican goods within the U.S., and evolving trade tensions with China. However, a key driver has been the preferential tariff treatment afforded to goods that meet the rules of origin under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), even amidst tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Approximately 83% of Mexican exports to the U.S. Entered duty-free under USMCA in December, with an average effective tariff rate of 4.4%, compared to a global average of 9.3%.

The U.S. Commerce Department data for December 2025 reveals a detailed picture of the trade landscape. Total U.S. Trade in goods reached $461.3 billion. Mexico accounted for $70.5 billion of that total (15.3%), while Canada accounted for $57.3 billion (12.4%). Beyond Mexico and Canada, key U.S. Trading partners included Taiwan ($29.5 billion), China ($29.5 billion), Germany ($22.5 billion), and Vietnam ($20.1 billion).

Looking specifically at exports, Mexico led with $28.2 billion (15.7% of the total), followed by Canada at $25.5 billion (14.2%). The United Kingdom and the Netherlands also saw significant U.S. Export activity, with $9.0 billion and $8.4 billion respectively. On the import side, Mexico remained the primary source, accounting for $42.4 billion (15.7% of total imports).

The implications of this shift extend beyond simple trade statistics. For years, Canadian officials have emphasized the country’s position as the top U.S. Export market, leveraging this data in lobbying efforts with U.S. Lawmakers and business leaders to advocate for favorable trade terms. The loss of this position represents a strategic setback for Canada, particularly as its economy has faced challenges related to shifts in U.S. Trade policy and deteriorating relations with Washington. Statistics Canada data indicates a 6.2% decline in imports from the U.S. In December, and a 5.7% decrease in sales to the U.S., alongside a narrowing of its goods-trade surplus with the U.S.

The Trump administration’s approach to trade negotiations played a role in this evolving dynamic. Officials reportedly found negotiations with Mexico more pragmatic than those with Canada, contributing to a more favorable outcome for Mexican trade. While the Trump administration initially imposed tariffs, Mexico’s economy largely avoided a worst-case scenario, and its manufacturing sector benefited from increased production. The USMCA agreement, with its rules of origin, appears to have been particularly beneficial for Mexico.

Despite a recent Supreme Court ruling striking down much of the Trump-era tariffs as exceeding presidential authority, a new executive order imposing a 10% global tariff could alter the landscape. This new tariff, signed on February 19, 2026, could be cumulative with existing tariffs on products like automobiles, steel, and aluminum, potentially impacting Mexico as well. The long-term effect of these tariffs remains to be seen, but the current data suggests that the integration of North American trade is proving resilient.

The data underscores a “triple play” for Mexico in bilateral trade with the U.S.: it has become the principal supplier of goods, the primary export market for U.S. Products, and, the number one trading partner overall. This position is unlikely to be easily dislodged, given the current trajectory and the benefits conferred by the USMCA agreement.