The future of white-collar work is facing a potentially seismic shift, according to Microsoft AI chief Mustafa Suleyman. In a recent conversation with the Financial Times, Suleyman predicted that artificial intelligence will achieve “human-level performance on most, if not all professional tasks” within the next 18 months. This timeline suggests a rapid acceleration in AI’s capabilities, potentially automating roles in fields like accounting, law, marketing, and project management.
Suleyman’s assessment echoes growing concerns within the tech industry. A viral essay by AI researcher Matt Shumer, published at Fortune.com, compared the current moment to the pre-pandemic days of February 2020, but warned that the coming disruption could be even more dramatic. The driving force behind this anticipated change is the exponential growth in computational power, allowing AI models to increasingly tackle complex tasks previously exclusive to human professionals.
The prediction isn’t isolated. Similar warnings emerged throughout 2025, with CEOs across various sectors voicing concerns about the potential for widespread job displacement. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei warned last May that AI could eliminate half of all entry-level white-collar positions. Ford CEO Jim Farley similarly predicted a 50% reduction in white-collar jobs in the U.S. Due to AI adoption. These earlier forecasts now appear to be aligning with Suleyman’s more specific timeframe.
However, the path to full automation isn’t without its complexities. A recent study by Model Evaluation and Threat Research (METR) on the impact of AI on software developers revealed a surprising outcome: the technology actually increased the time it took workers to complete their tasks by 20%. This suggests that, at least in some areas, AI isn’t yet delivering the productivity gains initially anticipated. The METR study highlights the importance of nuanced evaluation, demonstrating that AI’s impact isn’t uniformly positive or straightforward.
Suleyman specifically pointed to the increasing ability of AI models to code as a key indicator of this impending shift. As “compute” – a measure of processing power – continues to advance, he believes AI will surpass most human coders in proficiency. This capability extends beyond software development, impacting any profession heavily reliant on computer-based tasks.
The anxieties surrounding AI’s rapid development are not limited to industry leaders issuing warnings. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and AI researcher Shumer have both expressed a sense of alarm, even sadness, at the prospect of their life’s work becoming obsolete. This sentiment underscores the profound implications of AI’s progress, not just for the workforce, but also for the individuals who have dedicated their careers to advancing the technology.
While the potential for disruption is significant, it’s important to note that the precise impact of AI remains uncertain. The speed and extent of automation will depend on a variety of factors, including the continued advancement of AI models, the cost of implementation, and the adaptability of businesses and workers. The coming months will be critical in determining whether Suleyman’s 18-month timeline proves accurate, and what measures will be necessary to mitigate the potential consequences of widespread job displacement.
The current situation presents a stark contrast to the latter half of the 20th century, when advanced degrees like MBAs and law degrees were considered reliable pathways to stable, well-compensated office jobs. The question now is whether those traditional credentials will retain their value in a world increasingly shaped by artificial intelligence. The next year and a half will likely provide a clearer answer.
