Middle East Conflict Drives Surge in Global Carbon Emissions

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East involving the United States, Israel, and Iran is causing a significant surge in global carbon emissions, according to recent climate analyses. The conflict, which began with a coordinated US-Israeli attack on Iran on February 28, 2026, has resulted in millions of tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions in its early stages, threatening global carbon budgets.

An analysis shared with the Guardian indicates that the first 14 days of the conflict led to 5 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions. This volume of emissions in just two weeks exceeds the annual carbon footprint of Iceland. The analysis suggests that the war is draining the global carbon budget faster than the combined emissions of 84 countries.

Sources of Wartime Emissions

The environmental cost of the conflict is driven by the destruction of infrastructure and the operation of high-emission military hardware. Destroyed buildings are identified as the largest element of the estimated carbon cost. Attacks on fossil fuel infrastructure, including oil refineries and ships at sea, have contributed to the atmospheric impact.

On March 8, 2026, an overnight airstrike targeted the Shahran oil refinery in north-west Tehran, exemplifying the type of infrastructure damage contributing to these emissions. The US has launched more than 8,000 combat flights since the start of “Operation Epic Fury,” the coordinated attack on Iran from late February.

The operational cost of these flights is substantial. According to Lennard de Klerk, head of the Initiative on Greenhouse Gas Accounting of War, a Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II fighter jet consumes between 5,600 and 6,500 liters of kerosene during a single combat sortie lasting one-and-a-half to two hours. This single flight emits approximately 14 to 17 tons of carbon dioxide, which is equivalent to the entire lifetime emissions of a conventional passenger car.

Every missile strike is another downpayment on a hotter, more unstable planet, and none of it makes anyone safer

Patrick Bigger, research director at the Climate and Community Institute

Global Energy Security and Economic Impact

Beyond direct emissions, the conflict has disrupted global energy supplies. The Hormuz Strait in the Persian Gulf, a critical transit point for one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply, has been largely closed to shipping since the conflict began approximately one month prior to April 2, 2026.

This closure has restricted access to fossil fuels required for power production worldwide, leading to higher prices in global markets. The United Nations has stated that this bottleneck highlights a fundamental vulnerability in the global economy’s dependence on fossil fuels flowing through conflict-affected regions.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres previously cautioned that the global addiction to fossil fuels is destabilizing both global security and the climate in an age of war. The UN is using the current crisis to argue for a faster transition to renewable power, which is viewed as more resilient and cheaper than fossil fuel dependence.

Environmental and Geopolitical Context

The US-Israeli axis has reported bombing thousands of targets within Iran, while Israel has hit hundreds of targets in Lebanon. These actions have turned parts of the Middle East into what analysts describe as an environmental sacrifice zone.

Patrick Bigger, co-author of the climate analysis, stated that refinery fires and tanker strikes demonstrate that fossil-fuelled geopolitics are incompatible with a livable planet. He noted that allowing fossil fuel interests to dictate foreign policy is the fastest way to accelerate the climate crisis.

The conflict has also triggered a social response, with memes circulating on social media that highlight the disconnect between individual conservation efforts, such as using paper straws, and the massive emissions generated by wartime military operations.