Middle East Conflict: Experts Predict Rising Gas and Grocery Prices

The U.S. Navy began blocking Iranian ports on April 13, 2026, triggering warnings from economic experts and international organizations that the conflict in the Middle East will drive up global prices for gasoline, and groceries.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the ongoing conflict could throttle the flow of oil, gas, and fertilizer out of the Gulf, leading to higher prices and slower economic growth worldwide.

Although the war could shape the global economy in different ways, all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth

IMF

The Washington-based IMF stated that rising energy and food costs are expected to harm economic growth this year and could leave lasting scars on the global economy. This analysis follows a threat by Donald Trump to obliterate the energy infrastructure of Iran unless a peace deal is reached.

The IMF noted that while the United States and other net exporters of oil and gas may benefit from higher fossil fuel prices, the increase in costs for diesel, petrol, and food will negatively impact living standards. The fund warned that governments with high borrowing levels may have limited funds to cushion the effects of the crisis.

The IMF analysis, which included input from chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, suggests that businesses may be forced to raise prices, which could lead central banks to increase interest rates to combat inflation.

Supply Chain and Industrial Disruptions

Chris Gaffney, a supply chain and logistics professor at Georgia Tech, stated that the impact of the conflict will be felt across almost everything consumed due to the disruption of trade lanes.

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Gaffney noted that costs will rise for any product that depends on oil for manufacturing, specifically citing plastic and aluminum packaging. He indicated that the cost of a can of Coca-Cola is expected to increase as a result.

The conflict has already significantly impacted specific industrial commodities:

• Fertilizer: Iran is the largest exporter of urea, a key component in fertilizer. The price of fertilizer has already risen by more than 25%. The IMF noted that approximately one-third of fertilizer production travels through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Helium: One-third of the global helium supply, primarily imported from Qatar, is currently off the market due to the conflict.
• Pharmaceuticals: Gaffney highlighted that trade disruptions may affect pharmaceuticals, noting that India is a major source of these products.

Consumer Price Impacts

Energy experts expect a continued rise in fuel costs. Montrae Waters of AAA stated that gas prices are expected to climb when crude oil trends above a trade over $100.

The increase in oil prices is also expected to impact the grocery aisle. Specific food items identified as susceptible to these rising costs include berries and coffee.

Gaffney stated that the costs associated with these disruptions are creeping in and that the time required to correct these price increases will not be immediate.