Middle East Conflict Threatens Whales Off South Africa as Sea Traffic Increases

Conflict in the Middle East is driving a surge in shipping traffic around the south-western coast of South Africa, significantly increasing the risk of collisions between commercial vessels and whale populations, according to researchers.

The rerouting of ships away from the Red Sea and the Suez Canal has shifted maritime traffic into whale habitats, creating a heightened danger of ship strikes. This shift in global shipping patterns began in late 2023 after Houthi rebels hijacked a British-owned vessel near Yemen.

The situation has been further exacerbated by the ongoing war between Iran and the United States and Israel. These conflicts have prompted more vessels transporting goods between Europe and Asia to avoid the Middle East entirely, opting instead to sail around the Cape of Good Hope.

Data from the International Monetary Fund’s PortWatch report, cited by AFP, shows a substantial increase in traffic. Between March and April 2026, approximately 89 commercial vessels sailed around the Cape of Good Hope, nearly double the 44 vessels that took the same route during the same period in 2023.

Professor Els Vermeulen, the chief scientist at the University of Pretoria’s Whale Unit, and her team recently presented their findings on this trend to the International Whaling Commission.

To determine the level of risk, the research team analyzed the movement of various whale species in the region. Professor Vermeulen stated that her team had

“looked at distribution models of different whale species around the Western Cape and overlaid these models with shipping routes to see where there’s a risk of collisions”

Professor Els Vermeulen

Despite the identified risks, quantifying the exact number of whales killed by ship strikes remains a challenge for scientists. Professor Vermeulen noted that a lack of current data makes it difficult to establish precise figures.

A primary obstacle in tracking these incidents is a phenomenon known as cryptic mortality. Most ship collisions occur deep offshore, which causes the affected animals to sink to the ocean floor rather than washing up on the coast where they can be discovered and recorded.

This lack of visible evidence makes it difficult for researchers to estimate the full scale of the problem, even as shipping volumes in the region continue to rise due to geopolitical instability in the Middle East.