Middle East Oil Flows Near Pre-War Levels Despite Ongoing Risks
- Middle East crude oil flows have recovered to approximately 98% of pre-conflict levels despite ongoing maritime security risks, according to separate research notes published on September 29, 2026,...
- JPMorgan analysts, including Natasha Kaneva, reported in an analysis dated September 29, 2026, that crude oil shipments across the region rebounded to roughly pre-conflict rates.
- Crude transit through the Strait of Hormuz climbed back toward late June highs of approximately 13 million barrels per day, driven primarily by Saudi Arabia.
Middle East crude oil flows have recovered to approximately 98% of pre-conflict levels despite ongoing maritime security risks, according to separate research notes published on September 29, 2026, by JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group. As the conflict between the United States and Iran enters its eighth month, analysts note that the rapid rebound reflects the operational adaptability of energy producers rather than an underlying improvement in regional safety.
JPMorgan analysts, including Natasha Kaneva, reported in an analysis dated September 29, 2026, that crude oil shipments across the region rebounded to roughly pre-conflict rates. Refined product flows—including diesel and gasoline—reached 3 million barrels per day, or 58% of pre-crisis benchmarks. Overall energy export volumes from the region hit 89% of 2025 averages, based on a 10-day average calculated over the final five days of the reporting period.
Shipping Volumes Through the Strait of Hormuz and Pipeline Routes
Crude transit through the Strait of Hormuz climbed back toward late June highs of approximately 13 million barrels per day, driven primarily by Saudi Arabia. JPMorgan observed that the higher traffic volume does not signify improved security, but rather the industry’s enhanced capacity to operate under persistent threats.
In addition to maritime routes, Saudi Arabia restored roughly half of its pipeline capacity along the East-West pipeline to Red Sea ports following damage sustained earlier in September. Goldman Sachs researchers, including Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby, estimated that total Persian Gulf crude and product exports—including unobserved shipments—recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day over the final week of September, matching the 2025 annual average.
Diverging Export Trends and Global Market Balance
Goldman Sachs highlighted a sharp divergence in regional output, marked by declining Iranian exports under U.S. naval blockades contrasted against surging shipments from other Gulf producers. According to Goldman’s September 29, 2026 note, Saudi exports more than doubled during the month, surpassing their 2025 averages and helping keep the global oil market roughly balanced through September.
Public estimates regarding actual daily volumes moving through the Strait of Hormuz have varied among international officials and energy executives. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant stated earlier in September that 17 million barrels of oil pass through the chokepoint “at times”. Meanwhile, TotalEnergies Chief Executive Officer Patrick Pouyanné placed daily transit volumes at 10 million barrels of crude and refined products.
Crude Pricing Pressures and Upward Momentum
Despite the recovery in physical export volumes, international benchmark Brent crude remained elevated above $103 per barrel. Prices continued to find support from persistent market anxiety regarding potential infrastructure strikes, putting Brent on track for its third monthly gain with an approximate 14% increase through September.