MLB Experts Weigh In on Standings⁤ at Memorial Day

Updated May 26, 2025

It’s Memorial Day, which means it’s time to pay attention to the MLB standings. According to baseball tradition, the standings gain meaning around Memorial Day as teams have played enough games to establish meaningful trends.

While today’s standings don’t guarantee a team’s final position, ancient data suggests a correlation. Elias Sports⁢ Bureau data shows that 59% of teams in sole possession of first place on June 1st have won their division as 1995 (excluding 2020).

ESPN MLB experts Jesse Rogers, Bradford Doolittle, Buster Olney, and David schoenfield shared their insights on this year’s standings.

What’s‍ the first thing that jumps out to you ⁣when you look at the standings?

Doolittle: The Colorado Rockies’ level of depravity at the bottom of the National League West is hard to look ⁣away from. They are minus-171 in run ⁢differential and on pace to ⁤finish more than 50 games ‍back of the fourth-place team. The Rockies ⁤rank ⁤10th in per-game home attendance,though they’re last in their division in that area as well.

Schoenfield: The Rockies are so bad, they make the 2024 Chicago White Sox ‍look like the 1998 New York Yankees. They’re better than the 1899 Cleveland Spiders — who hold the worst single-season record in MLB history, ⁣finishing at 20-134.

Olney: The parity of the American League is⁣ affirmed by the playoff odds presented on FanGraphs.com: As of Monday morning,11 of 15 teams⁢ have at least ⁢a 20% chance of reaching the⁣ postseason. We really don’t know anything yet about the AL, ⁤other than how good the Detroit Tigers are and that only four games separate four teams ‍at the top of the AL West.

Rogers: Seeing the Baltimore Orioles in last place in the AL⁤ East. even if you didn’t think they ⁢did enough in the⁤ offseason, their offense alone should have kept them afloat. The lack ⁢of productivity from Gunnar henderson and Adley Rutschman is quite shocking. The concept of the Orioles trading away players at the deadline was farfetched in january; now,it’s a⁢ reality.

Of the six NL⁤ teams currently in the playoff field, how many will be there in ‍October?

Doolittle: Five. The Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago Cubs and New York Mets⁤ are‍ in a solid position.⁢ I like the San Diego Padres ⁤to remain in position, though they need to add to their lineup before the trade deadline. The San Francisco Giants have been terrific,but I still think ⁢the Atlanta Braves will take off at some point,leaving San Francisco and the pitching-challenged Arizona Diamondbacks on the outside looking in.

Olney: I’ll say four of the current six — the Phillies, Mets, Cubs and Dodgers. The Giants have played well, and it⁣ truly seems likely that president ⁢of baseball operations Buster Posey will be aggressive before the trade deadline, and the St. louis Cardinals have played far better than expected. But at some point, the roster depth of the Braves will fully manifest, especially now that Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider are back, and either San Diego or Arizona will take the last ⁤spot.

Rogers: Five ⁢of the current six will be there in October. As good as the Giants⁢ have been, I don’t think they can ⁣sustain it over 162 games. Now that the Braves have⁤ their stars back, their best days are ahead of them. I also don’t think the Cardinals have staying power, further opening the door for Atlanta.

Schoenfield: I’ll say five of six, with either the Giants or Cardinals eventually falling short, although it’s likely to be a crowded‍ field down to⁣ the final week of the ⁣season, with the Braves, Padres and Diamondbacks factoring in. I still think Arizona’s lineup will power ⁢the team into a playoff spot, but ⁣the D-backs need to get Zac Gallen straightened out and the fifth spot in the rotation has‍ been a bit of a mess as well.

of the six AL teams currently in the playoff field, how many ‍will be there in October?

Olney: Three — I’m buying the Tigers, Yankees and Seattle Mariners. Detroit⁢ has⁢ been remarkable early this season in how it has⁢ plowed ⁤through injuries to its outfield; New York is getting better, with reinforcements for its rotation on the horizon (Luis Gil); and seattle could have its rotation in order by the end of June now that George Kirby is back and Logan Gilbert’s return is‍ on the horizon. The fact that the Mariners were able to take on Leody Taveras’ whole salary is an early indicator that Seattle, which basically sat out the winter market, will be aggressive at the trade deadline.

Barring injury, Aaron⁣ Judge will win the AL MVP unanimously, so the real question is who will finish second.

What’s next

As the season progresses,‍ keep an eye on team performances, potential trades, and player development to see how the standings evolve ⁣and which⁢ teams solidify⁤ their playoff chances.